5 UK share ideas – where are they now and how have they performed?

Since we highlighted AstraZeneca’s credentials as a science-backed growth prospect, it’s set out its ambition to nearly double annual revenues to $80bn by 2030, and upgraded its guidance for 2024.

Revenue and underlying earnings per share are anticipated to grow by a mid-teens percentage, compared to a low double-digit to low-teens number previously. That helped it to briefly become Britain’s first listed company to be valued at over £200bn.

Sentiment has since been dampened a little after clinical data on a key experimental drug being presented at the World Conference on Lung Cancer disappointed.

However, this wasn’t new news.

This program still has the potential for commercialisation, and the broader pipeline continues to look busy and exciting to us. Although this still comes with the usual uncertainty that goes with drug discovery.

That aside, Astra continues to rack up approvals with several cancer regulatory permissions granted for cancer treatments between the publication of the first quarter and first half numbers.

Since then, it’s received US regulatory approval for its immunotherapy Imfinzi as a combination treatment for the most common form of lung cancer, when it’s diagnosed early enough to be surgically removed.

It’s already Astra’s second-best selling cancer therapy generating almost $2.3bn in revenues in the first half of this year, up 25% on an underlying basis.

There were also strong performances for certain products in the rare disease and cardiometabolic space. This diversity is another reason we continue to see AstraZeneca as one of the best in the sector.

This year’s progress hasn’t gone unnoticed by the market, with the valuation, when compared to earnings, rising strongly. At close to the long-term average it doesn’t look too demanding, but there’s some pressure to deliver.

BP’s profits so far this year have been nothing to write home about, with low refining margins dragging on performance.

This also reflects strong comparisons in gas marketing and trading, which tends to do better when gas prices are more volatile. This year they’ve been relatively stable. Until recently the same can be said of crude oil prices.

However, since the half year-end they have been on a downward trend which has weighed heavily on BP’s valuation.

There have also been concerns about the impact of Hurricane Francine on BP’s offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico. But, while the platforms were briefly evacuated, there appears to be no long-term damage to operations.

We think BP has the cash generation to weather these ups and downs while continuing to fund investments and generous shareholder payouts.

For now, the prospective dividend yield of 6.2% doesn’t look too much of a stretch. However, that can’t be guaranteed and could come under pressure if commodity prices suffer a prolonged period of weakness.

Meanwhile, there are growing signs that the company is applying stricter financial discipline when considering projects in both oil & gas and low-carbon projects, an approach we support.

BP’s valuation is towards the bottom of the peer group, and we think that this wooden spoon is undeserved. Successful execution of these high-value projects is one way to close the valuation gap, but that could take some time.

Greggs continues to impress, with July’s half-year results showcasing its strengths.

Like-for-like sales in company-managed shops grew by 7.4%, and total sales rose by nearly 14% compared to the same period last year, showcasing the company's resilience despite economic challenges.

Investor sentiment remains positive, bolstered by double-digit growth in underlying pre-tax profit and a 18.8% hike for the interim dividend, reflecting confidence in Greggs' ongoing growth.

Despite being second only to Costa in UK store numbers, Greggs is pushing ahead with ambitious expansion plans.

In the first half, the company opened 51 net new shops, bringing the total estates to over 2,500 locations. Management aims to add a net total of 140–160 new shops this year, targeting over 3,000 UK shops by the end of 2026.

Strong demand is supporting a larger estate and driving increased revenue at each store.

Evening trade, though still a small portion of sales, presents significant growth opportunities through extended hours, enhanced hot food options, and promotion of the loyalty program. Notably, the number of people using the Greggs App has risen substantially, indicating growing customer engagement.

While cost inflation remains a challenge, Greggs has kept prices competitive, maintaining its reputation for value. Product prices have risen less than many peers over the past few years, ensuring the brand's value proposition remains strong.

Greggs is laying solid foundations for future growth while offering an attractive dividend yield for a growth-oriented name. We remain positive about the company but acknowledge that no returns are guaranteed. Strong recent performance also sets high expectations, increasing the risk of short-term volatility.

London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) owns one of the world's oldest and largest stock exchanges, but it’s taking steps to keep up with the times.

The acquisition of Refinitiv means data and analytics are its new bread and butter, rather than the more traditional exchange activities like issuing debt and equity.

A period of heavy investment in data, solutions and people is starting to bear fruit, with first-half results impressing us. Ignoring currency impacts, organic revenue rose 6.8% to £4.4bn, with all business units seeing growth.

And thanks to a tight grip on costs, profitability’s growing at a faster pace, with underlying operating profits rising 8.9% to £1.6bn.

This strong start to the year gave management the confidence to reiterate its medium-term guidance, which calls for mid-to-high single-digit organic revenue growth.

The integration of Refinitiv shifts LSEG to a more subscription-led revenue model, which should help reduce future ups and downs in profitability too.

Despite a rise in the valuation over recent months, we don’t think this fully reflects the opportunities ahead for LSEG’s scalable business model. The structural trends that we like are still in place.

The electronification of trading, embedding tech into capital markets, and growth in demand for data and tools to analyse it are all areas that LSEG looks well-placed to benefit from.

But delivering the right tools isn’t easy, or cheap, and brings risk if it fails to deliver compared to the competition.

NatWest's valuation has risen significantly this year. That’s in part due to its depressed level coming into 2024. But we’ve also seen improving economic conditions in the UK, and strong performances from NatWest in recent quarters.

We had second-quarter results back in July. Impairment charges (money put aside in anticipation of more people defaulting on loan payments) were yet again better than expected as customers showed remarkable resilience in the face of higher interest rates. We think it's reasonable to expect low default rates to continue over the rest of the year.

There’s been more positive news on the mortgage side of things, with demand picking back up as interest rates took their first move down. That’s good for growing the asset book and we should see mortgages start to contribute positively moving forward after a period with several headwinds.

The income guide has looked conservative since the start of the year, but management finally felt comfortable enough to raise full-year guidance to £14bn back in July.

However, we still think that underestimates some of the positive moving parts, given that it essentially assumes second-half income will be the same as the first.

We’re pleased to see sentiment improve in recent months. That was the low-hanging fruit. From here, NatWest need to deliver on performance to push things higher. We remain confident NatWest can deliver, though there are no guarantees.