HL LIVE
HL commentary as it happens
Thursday 12th February
Oil prices rise, but it’s not a one-way street
Oil prices pushed higher again, with Brent hovering around $70 a barrel, as geopolitical nerves around US‑Iran tensions continued to do the heavy lifting. Talk of diplomacy has done little to calm traders, who remain focused on the risk of supply disruption, even as OPEC stuck to its demand forecasts and signalled no change in its supply stance. That said, the rally is running into resistance, with US inventories jumping sharply and the IEA likely to remind markets that a global surplus is still lurking in the background later today.
US markets flat, but software selloff continues
US markets looked flat on the surface, but beneath the calm, it was a volatile session, with solid breadth in the S&P 500 masking weakness in the tech‑heavy Nasdaq. This is 2026 in a nutshell: blink, and you’re punished, as perceived AI disruption continues to separate winners from losers.
FTSE higher despite soft GDP print
UK markets opened higher, brushing off a lacklustre GDP report that showed the economy barely moving at the end of last year. Growth in Q4 was muted and narrowly driven by services and government spending, a reminder that private‑sector momentum remains thin despite hopes that Q1 will look a little brighter. That leaves the bigger picture unchanged: a fragile growth outlook, softer inflation ahead, and a Bank of England that should have room to cut rates over 2026.
Tuesday 10th February
Profit taking across a host of commodity markets
It’s a sea of red for commodities this morning, with gold, copper and oil all softer as investors lock in profits and weigh geopolitical risk against a cooling growth and policy outlook. Brent is hovering near $69 a barrel on US–Iran tensions and uncertainty over India’s Russian crude imports. Gold slipped below $5,030 on profit-taking ahead of key US data, and copper eased as Chinese demand slows into the Lunar New Year, underscoring volatile near-term momentum despite longer-term structural support.
Monday 9th February
Oil prices plummet as Saudi Arabia cuts Asian export prices
Brent crude prices are down around 1% to about $67.2 per barrel, extending weekend losses seen after Saudi Arabia dropped its selling prices on oil exports to Asia for the fourth month in a row. That’s shifted traders’ attention away from tensions between Tehran and Washington, back to concerns about an oversupplied oil market, despite fresh sanctions on Iranian tankers following talks on Iran’s nuclear future in Oman on Friday.
US CPI inflation in focus
Markets will be keeping a close eye on US CPI inflation due at the end of the week. January’s annualised price increases are expected to fall from 2.7% to 2.5% but that’s been aided by falling oil prices. Core inflation is expected to remain steady at 2.6% and unless that starts to nudge down, we may not see another rate cut during the final months of Jerome Powell’s reign at the Fed, even if the labour market tightens further. Unemployment figures are also due this week and are forecast to remain steady at 4.4%.
US stock futures flat
US stock futures are little moved today after US stocks ended the week just about flat, but it was far from an even outcome, with concerns about ballooning capex on AI, and threats to traditional operating models dragging on tech stocks.
Nikkei briefly breaches 57,000 after Takaichi claims a landslide
Japan’s electorate braved blizzard conditions to give Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party more than a two-thirds majority in the Land of the Rising Sun’s powerful lower chamber. Her spend big and tax low approach has gone down well with stock markets, with the Nikkei crossing the 57,000 barrier for the first time before pulling back a little. That puts pressure on productivity and economic growth to do the heavy lifting when it comes to balancing the books. Japanese inflation is nearly at the Bank of Japan’s target level of 2% but there are concerns that too much stimulus could see price increases accelerate again. The interplay between Governor Kazuo Ueda, and the newly emboldened premier will be the key dynamic to monitor, but markets look to be anticipating some pressure on state finances, with both the Yen and prices of government securities under pressure after the result.
New record in sight for FTSE 100
The FTSE 100 shrugged off this weekend’s political turmoil in Whitehall to open up near record highs, as it holds on to the coat tails of a strong Monday for Asian stocks. With precious metals gaining ground again expect a good start for the miners. After last week’s see-saw, silver is up nearly 5% and gold has crept back over the $5,000/oz level as investors prepare for US inflation and jobs data later in the week.