HL LIVE
HL commentary as it happens
Thursday 4th December
Oil extends recent gains
Brent crude oil is edging up toward $63 a barrel, as Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil sites and stalled peace talks keep supply fears alive. Washington’s latest hard line on Venezuela is adding another spot of upward pressure into the mix. Still, prices are down double digits for the year, a reminder that the broader trend is softer. For most households and businesses, that’s a win - lower energy costs are a key factor in keeping inflation under control.
US markets edge higher on rate cut hopes
US stocks pushed through some early jitters, closing higher again, reinforcing the sense that momentum is back as rate-cut expectations firm up. Investors are leaning into the idea that easier policy is coming, which is fuelling appetite for risk and lifting everything from blue chips to small caps. Still, with inflation data and Fed decisions ahead, the path is far from set in stone.
Expectations have swung wildly over the past month, so assuming any cuts are a done deal could be a costly mistake, and volatility can just as quickly return if the rate cutting narrative shifts. One thing’s clear, if markets want a Santa rally, they need the Fed to stay in line.
FTSE 100 higher at the open, closing in on a strong year
The FTSE 100 is pushing higher at the open, riding the same wave of optimism as US markets with rate-cut hopes lifting risk appetite. With a strong December finish, UK’s blue-chip stocks could edge past the S&P 500 for rare annual performance bragging rights - the two are neck and neck right now.
Tuesday 2nd December
Oil extends gains
Oil prices edged higher again this morning, extending recent gains as geopolitical tensions and supply risks dominate the narrative. Ukrainian strikes over the weekend damaged key infrastructure, while US–Venezuela tensions flared after Washington warned its airspace should be considered closed.
FTSE 100 opens lower
The FTSE 100 is struggling to find momentum in the early days of December - not so much a sign of weakness as a lack of catalysts to drive the next leg higher. Against that backdrop, UK banks are offering a dose of optimism this morning in what’s turning out to be a good couple of weeks for the major lenders.
US markets await fresh catalysts
US markets slipped last night on light volumes, as investors seemed to be shaking off the weekend’s Thanksgiving celebrations. Futures point to a muted start again today, with US markets still hovering near record highs but lacking fresh catalysts. A quiet earnings calendar and sparse economic data keep the tone subdued, leaving investors looking ahead to Friday’s delayed PCE inflation report. With rate-cut odds for next week sitting at 86%, inflation data could be the spark everyone’s waiting for, if it’s supportive of further cuts.
Monday 1st December
Oil jumps as OPEC+ keeps production steady
Oil prices climbed nearly 2% this morning, with Brent closing in on its highest price in over a week, after OPEC+ reaffirmed plans to freeze production increases through the first quarter. The move comes as the group wrestles with uneven demand and looming oversupply risks, while traders weigh fresh geopolitical tension following US warnings over Venezuelan airspace. Still, upside looks limited with hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could unlock sanctions and flood the market with additional supply.
Friday 28th November
Brent Crude prices head for fourth monthly loss
Brent Crude oil prices have recovered slightly this morning but are just shy of the $63 mark as a barrel of the black stuff heads for its fourth monthly value decline in a row. Rising output and the prospect of another round of peace talks aimed at ending the Russia/Ukraine war are fuelling concerns of oversupply. The prospect of Russia pipelines reopening has also driven European gas prices to 18-month lows with losses further extended today.
US futures up ahead of return from Thanksgiving
US futures are up a touch as Wall Street prepares to return from Thanksgiving for a half day’s trading. US stocks have all but recovered from this month’s earlier sell off but nerves could still be on edge in December, typically a strong month for stocks. Since the turn of the century, Santa has delivered a December rally 18 out of 24 times. With expectations firming of a December rate cut, and the US government shutdown resolved, at least a few obstacles to Rudolph’s flight path have been removed.
UK shoppers expected to spend £6.4bn today
Black Friday is upon us, with PwC forecasting a 1.5% increase in spending to £6.4bn. Under the bonnet, less people are expected to be drawn into the promotional frenzy but those that do are set to spend 13% more. Encouragingly for retailers, only a minority of those shunning the shops are doing so for financial reasons, with just 7% citing the Budget as a deciding factor when polled ahead of the speech.
FTSE builds on recent rally
The FTSE opened up around 0.25% this morning, taking it about 2% higher than when the week started, with the Chancellor delivering what was widely seen as a fiscally responsible Budget. Gilt yields remain below where they were on Monday, a sign of growing trust by those who lend to the Treasury. The market’s now pricing in a 94% chance of a quarter-point cut by the Bank of England next month.