HL LIVE
HL commentary as it happens
Wednesday 12th November
Global markets buoyant on expectation of US shutdown resolution
Macro news has also provided a tailwind for markets – with the US shutdown nearing resolution after a record 43 day run. Somewhat surprisingly given the recent successes in the odd-year elections, Democrats appear to have conceded some of their demands for healthcare funding and the prospect of an approved US Budget has lifted markets globally. Add to that, poor jobs data in the UK yesterday meaning that the markets are now pricing in a near cert of a December rate cut – sending both UK equities and bonds up.
European stocks hit record highs and continue upwards
European markets have continued their winning streak this morning, opening up thanks to a smattering of positive macro and company news in areas of the market which have been overlooked year to date – with much of European gains coming from defence and banking, thanks to government spending and a supportive rate environment, leaving sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities behind.
Tuesday 11th November
Oil treads water as traders await key updates
Oil prices are treading water this week as traders await key updates from OPEC and the IEA. Concerns are mounting over a potential supply glut, with OPEC+ gradually easing output cuts and non-OPEC producers ramping up supply. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions linger as US sanctions hit Russian oil majors, adding a layer of uncertainty to an already fragile market.
Slowing UK wage growth fuels rate cut hopes
The FTSE 100 has opened with a spring in its step, as cooling wage growth fuels hopes the Bank of England will cut rates in December. Private sector pay, a key metric for the committee, slowed to 4.2% in September, while broader wages undershot forecasts. Labour market signals are softening across the board, with payrolls falling again in October and unemployment nudging higher. Markets are now pricing in a 73% chance of a December rate cut, as the case for policy easing gains traction.
Monday 10th November
Gold climbs on lower dollar and growth concerns
Gold climbed more than 1% to around $4,050 an ounce, hitting a two-week high as investors weighed economic jitters against hopes for rate cuts. A softer dollar added fuel to the rally, making the metal more attractive to overseas buyers. While gold rising alongside equities feels counter intuitive, the mix of policy uncertainty and US interest rate cut expectations is keeping this unusual correlation alive.
Oil traders look ahead to key market updates
Oil prices edged higher, with Brent crude climbing back above $64 a barrel after two weeks of declines. The rebound comes as traders await fresh outlooks from OPEC and the IEA, hoping for clarity on supply-demand dynamics amid rising production from both OPEC and US producers. Sanctions on Russian oil remain a wild card, pushing major buyers like China and India to diversify sources, adding another layer of complexity to the market.
UK opens higher, US futures show momentum
Global markets kicked off the week on a positive note, buoyed by signs that the US government shutdown may soon be resolved. While the standoff hasn’t turned into the market drag many feared a few weeks ago, the prospect of clarity is still welcome. Investors tend to prefer stability and removing this uncertainty allows focus to shift back to earnings season, which is where the real story lies. Relief, rather than euphoria, seems to be the tone - but it’s enough to keep sentiment on the front foot and US futures suggest a positive open this afternoon. The FTSE 100 opened higher this morning, joining in on the positive momentum felt around the globe, and it’s another busy week for UK company updates.
Friday 7th November
Brent crude on track for a second weekly decline
Brent crude oil prices are up around 1% at close to $64 per barrel but remain on track for a second weekly decline in the face of supply concerns with output on the increase across a wide spread of nations, with lower-than-average demand growth expected to persist into 2026.
FTSE 100 steady and US stock futures tick up
The FTSE 100 is once again showcasing its merits as an attractive venue for investors seeking stability. It’s flat at today’s open, barely changed over the week and remains within touching distance of its all-time high.
This week’s FTSE performance is a sharp contrast to the main US indices which have been in negative territory every day this week. Yesterday’s session saw a slide in the share prices of six of the Magnificent Seven. However, the move needs to be viewed in the context of strong year-to-date gains with all major benchmarks still well ahead of where they were in January, and investors can’t be blamed for taking a few chips off the table in the face of worsening jobs numbers.
Official economic data has been thin on the ground as the longest US government shutdown in history rolls on. But Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed a big spike in October job cuts to 153,074, the largest monthly number in 20 years. The flip side could be more support for accelerated US rate cuts, but for now investors are looking on the downside, with the CNN fear and greed index sitting in ‘extreme fear’ territory at 24, close to a six-month-low.