HL LIVE
HL commentary as it happens
Tuesday 6th January
Oil prices ease after a surprise rise yesterday
Oil eased back this morning with Brent around $61.60 a barrel, giving up a bit of Monday’s surprise jump as traders weighed what US pressure on Venezuela really means for supply. With the country pumping less than 1% of the world’s oil after years of underinvestment, any major near-term disruption looks more bark than bite. Adding to the softer tone, Saudi Arabia cut prices to Asia again, and OPEC+ stuck to its cautious stance, keeping supply steady in a market that already feels well stocked.
Copper hits new highs
Copper pushed through $6 a pound to fresh record highs, driven by expectations that global supply will tighten further this year, and worries that potential new US tariffs on refined metals could squeeze major hubs like London and Shanghai. Demand remains solid too, with copper right at the heart of power‑grid upgrades, renewable energy build‑outs and the surge in data‑centre construction. It’s a backdrop that plays neatly into the hands of the big miners, many of whom have been pivoting hard toward copper in recent years and now look well positioned to benefit from prolonged higher prices.
Global equities on the front foot
Global equities are starting the day on the front foot, with markets largely brushing aside the uncertainty stirred up by US moves in Venezuela. European and UK indexes are trading higher, and US futures are pointing to a positive open, hinting at a broadly upbeat mood to kick off the day.
Monday 5th January
Oil drops as traders weigh up supply dynamics in Venezuela
Oil is down in early trading, with Brent hovering around the $57 mark, as traders weigh up the impact of US actions in Venezuela. The immediate price reaction isn’t quite as extreme as some may have thought. That’s because Venezuela may have the world’s biggest reserves, but it’s only pumping roughly 1 million barrels a day (under 1% of global output), so the short‑term barrel maths doesn’t scream ‘crisis’. The real market-moving question is the medium-term impact. If sanctions ease and serious investment flows back into creaking infrastructure, Venezuela could eventually add meaningful supply, but this won’t be a quick process.
Gold climbs as investors look for shelter
Gold climbed over 2% to breach $4,420 an ounce, as traders seek shelter from geopolitical tremors sparked by Washington’s dramatic move in Venezuela. The metal’s rally builds on last year’s stellar run, with its attractions as a so-called safe haven colliding with uncertainty over US rate signals ahead of Friday’s payrolls. For now, gold is wearing the crown as the market’s preferred insurance policy against both political risk and policy surprises.
FTSE 100 opens higher as markets gear up for retail sector results
The FTSE 100 has opened higher this morning, but remains just shy of the 10,000 mark. Next kicks off a big week for UK retail on Tuesday, with investors looking for another strong update after October’s sales update smashed expectations and profit guidance was lifted to £1.1 billion.