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HL commentary as it happens
Wednesday 14th January
Oil snaps back after four-day rally
Oil prices have met their match with Brent down 0.7% this morning, ending a four-day rally as Venezuela resumed exports under a new deal with the US. The pullback was limited, though, with prices still near three-month highs amid mounting supply risks from Iran, where protests and cancelled talks with Washington threaten roughly 3.3 million barrels per day of output.
US markets react to well-behaved inflation
US markets had a choppy session last night. Well-behaved inflation gave an early boost, with core CPI coming in at 2.6% versus the 2.7% expected, supporting hopes for at least two rate cuts this year. Bond yields dipped on the news, but equities couldn’t hold their morning gains, finishing the day mostly flat, as the S&P closed just shy of a record high.
FTSE 100 opens higher
UK stocks opened higher this morning, tracking a reasonably positive start across most of Europe. With few major catalysts on the calendar, trading is likely to stay range-bound, as investors digest results from today.
Tuesday 13th January
Brent Crude at $64 as net closes in on Iranian exports
Brent crude is holding onto recent gains as it hovers just above $64. The threat from the White House of a 25% tariff on any country that does business with Iran coupled with the potential for military action has raised concerns about the supply outlook from the world’s fifth largest producer.
US stock futures unmoved after record close
Despite a poor day for financials, US stocks managed to close out at another record high. Futures are pointing to an uneventful open after the bell rings on Wall Street. Donald Trump’s efforts to force a more doveish hand from the Fed have so far proved ineffective. His quest for looser monetary conditions has now brought US credit card lending rates into the crossfire sending a shudder through the sector.
FTSE 100 opens flat
Equity markets are continuing to thrive in 2026 in the face of mounting geopolitical tension. After a tentative open, the FTSE remains just a hair’s breadth from its all-time best. Mining stocks have been the key driver of the uplift so far in January, but today UK Plc is back under the microscope, with updates from housebuilders, too.
Monday 12th January
UK & US Financials: Trump calls for credit card cap
Banking stocks are under pressure this morning, with the sector trading lower across the board as investors weigh the fallout from Donald Trump’s call for a one-year cap on credit‑card interest rates.
A 10% ceiling on credit‑card rates, roughly half today’s average interest rate, would upend the basic economics of the industry, forcing lenders to rethink how they manage risk and who they’re willing to lend to. Most banks would respond by cutting credit limits, closing riskier accounts, and scaling back rewards programmes, because they simply couldn’t cover losses at that price point. Card‑focused names in the US would be hit the hardest, but big universal banks with card divisions would also feel the squeeze.
Copper could be the metal to watch in 2026
Copper pushed toward $6 per pound to start the week, supported by tightening supply and fresh concerns that new US tariffs on refined metals could reroute flows and strain global availability further. Disruptions across major South American producers, from weather to labour unrest, are adding to the pressure just as demand accelerates. And with copper sitting at the crossroads of two powerful structural trends, the AI build‑out and the global energy transition, it’s the metal to watch for 2026.
Gold climbs to record high
Gold climbed to a fresh record high this morning, as a cocktail of geopolitical tension and questions over Federal Reserve independence sent investors flocking to safety. Escalating rhetoric between Iran and the US, alongside revelations that Chair Powell faced threats from the White House over past decisions, heightened the sense of political risk. A softer US jobs print on Friday added fuel to the gold trade, with traders leaning into expectations of two rate cuts this year ahead of a pivotal inflation report later this week.
Global markets on the back foot
Global markets opened on the back foot this morning, with the FTSE 100 edging lower, alongside softer European markets and US futures pointing to a muted Wall Street open later today, as investors grapple with fresh political turbulence and rising geopolitical risk. Sentiment has been shaken by news of a criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his claims of political pressure from the Trump administration, while unrest in Iran and talk of possible US intervention add another layer of concern.
Friday 9th January
Global markets await two key events in the US later today which could significantly impact volatility
All eyes are on the US as global markets await two key events in the US later today which could significantly impact volatility. We’ve got a key macro data point in the US jobs report – the first potentially clean read following the record-long government shutdown which impacted the validity of both jobs and inflation data for October and November. The jobs report is expected to show stability, which will in turn lead to stability in rates – with expectations that the Fed will hold when they meet later this month. Our house view is that both the Federal Reserve in the US and the Bank of England here in the UK will cut just twice apiece through 2026.
The tariff ruling has more potential for upset – if the Supreme Court rules against Trump, then expect significant impact on both stocks and bonds, with mixed impact. Some may read it as an effective cut to inflation which would be good news for equities, but it also means a cut to government revenues – bad news for bonds.
Ahead of this news, US futures look soft, with open calls down on yesterday’s close. The S&P 500 had a strong trading day yesterday, buoyed by the defence sector. It has been a rollercoaster week for defence stocks – jumping high following Monday’s US operation in Venezuela before profit taking on Tuesday. Then yesterday they were climbing again as President Donald Trump announced that the US military budget should be a whopping $1.5trn this year - $600bn more than has been approved.
Thursday 8th January
Brent crude inches back above $60 per barrel
Progress towards a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine in this long-running human tragedy could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian fossil fuels. However, markets have seen numerous false dawns before and Brent crude prices have nudged back above the $60 per barrel mark, helped by a surprise fall in weekly US oil inventory holdings.
2026 earnings growth forecast to accelerate.
US Stocks are at close to record highs as we head towards fourth quarter earnings season. Next week kicks off with the banks, where a strong finish for IPOs, M&A and trading is likely to have boosted investment banking revenues. Across the wider market, Q4 estimates have been steadily rising since September, with average earnings growth for the S&P 500 up from 7.2% to 8.3% according to the latest Factset earnings insight.
US Stock futures ease ahead of key jobs data, with wage inflation expected to come in flat
US stock futures are down today, with a focus firmly on the first jobs data of 2026. Initial jobless claims are expected to have risen slightly from the previous week, to 213,000, still a relatively benign number compared to last year’s weekly average. A stabilising labour market puts less pressure on the Fed to take a knife to rates, but the political will to do so remains ever present. Presently however, markets are betting on June as the most likely moment for the first cut of 2026. Inflation remains the elephant in the room, with the recent Washington shut down delaying and distorting price data.
Unit labour costs are one key forward indicator and if today’s numbers come in flat, as forecast, that should give some confidence to the notion that the US Economy isn’t overheating. If economic growth can be driven by productivity rather than prices, that’s a strong foundation for long-term stability. Non-farm productivity is expected at 4.9%, up from a previous read of 3.3%. If artificial intelligence can live up to its promises, there could be more to come, but the speed and size of these gains remains to be seen.
FTSE set for further profit-taking after yesterday’ losses in miners and oil companies
Some further profit taking by investors in the FTSE 100 looks likely this morning, after the index lost some of its shine on Wednesday following a pull-back in precious metal and oil prices. But at over 10,000 points, the index remains over 20% higher than it was this time in 2025, despite the unpredictable start to the geopolitical year.