HL LIVE
HL commentary as it happens
Monday 16th February
Oil prices hold steady after back-to-back weekly drop
Oil prices were steady this morning, with Brent hovering around $67.70 a barrel, as investors juggle rising geopolitical tension against a market that still looks well supplied. Talks between the US and Iran resume tomorrow, keeping traders on edge given the risk of escalation, while fresh Russia-Ukraine discussions are unlikely to unlock much extra oil anytime soon. Even so, prices are struggling to lift as OPEC+ debates adding more supply and the IEA flags a growing surplus and softer demand growth ahead.
US markets closed for Presidents’ Day, after another week of software pain
US markets are closed today, and that may be a welcome relief to many, after last week was once again dominated by violent swings linked to AI. Some stocks are flying, and others are getting crushed in moves that often feel disconnected from fundamentals. Power and utility names were the clear winners as investors bet they’ll be essential to the AI build‑out, while anything tied to data or software found itself in the firing line. Away from the AI noise, falling bond yields and softer inflation offered some relief, but a few worrying signals around growing loan defaults were one reminder that not everything under the hood is improving.
FTSE 100 opens higher
The FTSE 100 opened a touch higher this morning as sentiment steadies following last week’s sharp AI‑driven swings. European markets are also set for modest gains, but with the US, China and parts of Asia shut for holidays, trading is likely to be quieter than usual.
Thursday 12th February
Oil prices rise, but it’s not a one-way street
Oil prices pushed higher again, with Brent hovering around $70 a barrel, as geopolitical nerves around US‑Iran tensions continued to do the heavy lifting. Talk of diplomacy has done little to calm traders, who remain focused on the risk of supply disruption, even as OPEC stuck to its demand forecasts and signalled no change in its supply stance. That said, the rally is running into resistance, with US inventories jumping sharply and the IEA likely to remind markets that a global surplus is still lurking in the background later today.
US markets flat, but software selloff continues
US markets looked flat on the surface, but beneath the calm, it was a volatile session, with solid breadth in the S&P 500 masking weakness in the tech‑heavy Nasdaq. This is 2026 in a nutshell: blink, and you’re punished, as perceived AI disruption continues to separate winners from losers.
FTSE higher despite soft GDP print
UK markets opened higher, brushing off a lacklustre GDP report that showed the economy barely moving at the end of last year. Growth in Q4 was muted and narrowly driven by services and government spending, a reminder that private‑sector momentum remains thin despite hopes that Q1 will look a little brighter. That leaves the bigger picture unchanged: a fragile growth outlook, softer inflation ahead, and a Bank of England that should have room to cut rates over 2026.
Tuesday 10th February
Profit taking across a host of commodity markets
It’s a sea of red for commodities this morning, with gold, copper and oil all softer as investors lock in profits and weigh geopolitical risk against a cooling growth and policy outlook. Brent is hovering near $69 a barrel on US–Iran tensions and uncertainty over India’s Russian crude imports. Gold slipped below $5,030 on profit-taking ahead of key US data, and copper eased as Chinese demand slows into the Lunar New Year, underscoring volatile near-term momentum despite longer-term structural support.