HL LIVE
HL commentary as it happens
Friday 5th June
US jobs report in focus today
The main data release today is the US non-farm payrolls report, due early afternoon, UK time. Markets are anticipating an increase in non-farm payrolls of 85,000, and any significant deviation from this number has the potential to change how the US Federal Reserve might alter interest rates. The Fed has a dual mandate to keep prices stable (that is, keep inflation low and predictable) and maintain labour force participation as full as possible without triggering inflation.
FTSE opens flat; quiet UK corporate calendar
The FTSE 100 is trading slightly up. The tone remains cautious, with global macro and tech sentiment continuing to set the pace rather than domestic developments. With less than two weeks to go until the Makerfield by-election, and with Andy Burnham confirming he will run in any Labour leadership contest, the focus may change. The latest opinion poll has Labour on 49% and Reform on 40%.
Thursday 4th June
NASDAQ and S&P futures fall
US stock futures are down this morning after Wall Street backed off from record highs yesterday. Most of the weakness came from big tech shares, with healthcare and consumer staples enjoying a rally as investors sought to top up on defensive positions.
Brent crude prices fall towards $97 per barrel as Trump insists deal is still in play
Oil traders appear to be holding on to hopes that the current situation will be transient rather than permanent. Brent Crude prices are down slightly at close to $97 per barrel. While the Strait of Hormuz remains technically closed, around 10% of normal traffic volumes are still making it through. Meanwhile, President Trump has made further suggestions that a deal could be reached within days.
OECD - strong outlook takes edge off disruption threat
The OECD has called the Middle East disruption the dominant force in its latest economic outlook. The report paints a relatively strong backdrop, with “output boosted by strong AI-related investment, production and trade, lower tariff barriers and supportive financial and fiscal conditions.” So, while global growth forecasts for this year have been revised downwards from 3.4% to 2.8%, 2027 forecasts have been held at 3.1%. However, its prolonged disruption scenario sees pressure on both inflation and growth, with Asian energy importers likely to feel the worst of it. In this scenario, global growth is set to turn negative by the end of 2026 before recovering over the course of 2027.
Wednesday 3rd June
Oil rises on Middle East supply risk
Oil prices are slowly climbing, with Brent moving above $97 a barrel as fresh Middle East tensions added another layer of risk to supply expectations. Reports of Iranian missile launches and US retaliatory strikes kept the geopolitical premium firmly in place, even as President Trump insisted talks with Iran are still active. There was a tighter supply angle too, with industry data pointing to a 6.8 million barrel drop in US crude inventories last week, which would mark a sixth straight weekly draw if confirmed by official figures later today.
Gold pressured by strong US jobs data
Gold’s been out of the spotlight of late, struggling to regain its shine, with prices holding below $4,500 an ounce. Stronger US jobs data didn’t help, denting hopes of near-term rate cuts. A jump in US job openings and a drop in layoffs point to a labour market that still has plenty of heat in it, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to keep interest rates higher for longer. Attention will now turn to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report as the next indication of where the rate path might be headed.
FTSE flat as US posts fresh highs
Global equity markets look set for a mixed start, with FTSE 100 opening down while US markets are also expected to give back a little ground after the S&P 500 chalked up yet another record high last night. The latest moves suggest investors are still happy to chase the AI theme, with some profit-taking in software names after a strong run and money rotating back into the trusty hardware plays. The market tone is still broadly upbeat, despite oil prices ticking higher as investors try to make heads or tails of what’s going on in the Middle East, with news of fresh strikes balanced with President Trump’s insistence that talks are still ongoing.
Tuesday 2nd June
Euro-zone inflation and US Jolts reports
The oil price is a touch softer today, at $94 per barrel, as rumours of a US/Iran deal continue to circulate. But there are also two other major economic releases today – Eurozone inflation and US Job Opening and Labour Turnover series (JOLTs).
Rising energy prices leave little doubt about the direction of Eurozone inflation in May; the question is how much it has risen by and, in particular, what’s happening to core inflation. Central bankers usually try to look through volatile energy prices when setting interest rates, but once price rises start seeping into the wider economy it’s harder to ignore. Certain members of the ECB board have already suggested that rates should rise even if there is a resolution in the Middle East.
In the US, JOLTs is expected to be broadly flat, a continuation of the ‘low fire low hire’ trend we have seen in recent months.
Bank of England Money and Credit Report today
The Bank of England is due to publish its Money and Credit report for April later today. Economists are predicting a slowdown in both mortgage and consumer lending as economic uncertainty caused the Iran war ripples through the economy. While cutting back on spending at times of crisis is perfectly sensible at a personal level, the slowdown in spending is less good news for the economy, as a whole. UK households are already sitting on significant savings, and the government would prefer that cash got out of wallets and into the real economy.
Monday 1st June
Oil ticks higher as Middle East risk premium lingers
Oil has found its way back onto the worry list, as hopes for a cleaner US-Iran breakthrough run into fresh uncertainty. The market had started to price in some relief from a possible ceasefire extension and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the risk premium has not disappeared, especially with the route still central to global energy flows. For equity markets, that keeps oil in an awkward spot: high enough to feed inflation and rate worries, but volatile enough to make any improvement in sentiment look fragile.
Housebuilders under pressure as buyer momentum cools
The housebuilding sector has a softer market signal to digest this morning, with Nationwide house price growth slowing to 1.7% in May and prices falling 0.6% month-on-month, the first monthly decline so far this year. The pressure is coming from a familiar place: higher energy prices and market interest rates have knocked confidence and cooled buyer demand, which matters for a sector still trying to rebuild momentum after a tough few years. But this does not look like a broken buyer backdrop just yet, with solid household finances, savings buffers and improving affordability suggesting weakness could prove temporary if energy prices settle and geopolitical tensions ease.
FTSE opens softly as US futures push higher
Global equity markets are heading into the week with a split tone. The FTSE 100 got off to a soft start, while the US is painting a brighter picture, with futures pointing higher. The tug of war for investors remains much the same: strong corporate earnings and AI-led optimism are still doing plenty of heavy lifting, but elevated bond yields, firm oil prices, and uncertainty over the path for interest rates are keeping a lid on the enthusiasm.