BP Plc (BP.) Ordinary US$0.25

No recommendation - No news or research item is a personal recommendation to deal. All investments can fall as well as rise in value so you could get back less than you invest.

BP’s third-quarter revenue fell 11% to $47.3bn. Underlying operating profit fell by 14% to $5.2bn, ahead of consensus estimates of $4.7bn.

An improved performance in gas and low-carbon energy wasn’t enough to offset a large decline in the customers and products division which suffered from lower refining margins and a weak contribution from oil trading. There was also an 11% dip in profits from the oil production and operations division.

Free cash flow fell from $5.1bn to $2.2bn, reflecting the lower profitability but also increased investment expenditure. Net debt was 9% higher at $24.2bn.

Fourth quarter oil & gas production is expected to be lower as are volumes in the customers business. Refining margins are also expected to remain depressed.

BP announced an interim dividend of 8 cents per share and a $1.75bn quarterly share buyback as part of its commitment to initiate $3.5mn of buybacks over the second half of the year.

The shares fell 2.6% in early trading.

Our view

Lower oil & gas prices are raising some questions around BP’s cash generation credentials. The third quarter results were the weakest seen since the pandemic. A slightly better than expected outcome wasn’t enough to lift investor’s spirits. Low refining margins have been hurting the bottom line and aren’t expected to improve any time soon. When coupled with an expected dip in production and weakness in commodity prices, we do see some potential downside in the fourth quarter compared to market forecasts, which expect profits to improve slightly quarter-on quarter.

The additional $2bn in cost savings that BP hopes to deliver by the end of 2026, can’t come soon enough. The lower profitability is also impacting cash flows. And there is no shortage of demands on BP’s cash resources. Capital expenditure topped $16bn last year and is likely to stay at a similar level till at least 2030. We are supportive of that approach which is focussed on growing the business through selective investments in oil and gas, as well as emerging areas of cleaner forms of energy such as solar energy and biofuels. It remains to be seen if they can generate an attractive return.

So far the company hasn’t pulled back on payouts to shareholders. Even with the lower levels of profitability being seen presently, the 6.3% future prospective yield currently feels pretty solid to us. Of course there are no promises with any shareholder returns and this has been seen in recent years where spending on share buybacks have even eclipsed dividend payments.

BP’s struggling to make a dent in its net debt pile of around $24bn. That’s not unmanageable compared to profits. But as the world strives to achieve net zero there’s some uncertainty around the industry so we’d like to see debt come down a bit. With that in mind, share buybacks are a more obvious area to trim spending. Management may need to make some tough choices.

There are names in the sector that have had a more disciplined approach to finances in the past which means they may not have to face the same dilemma. We do think BP is running a more prudent ship than it was, but with most planned divestments from non-core assets now complete there aren’t any quick fixes.

BP's valuation remains some way below the long-term average. In our opinion, this reflects investor concern over the long-term outlook for the oil & gas industry. We think its investing in the right balance of new and old projects to ensure it can prosper over the longer-term, but the potential for shareholder distributions to be trimmed is a risk that could weigh on sentiment in the short-term. And until BP starts to consistently bring down its debt pile investor nerves could well remain on edge.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) risk

Environmental concerns are the primary driver of ESG risk for oil and gas producers, with carbon emissions and waste disposal being the main issues. Health and safety, community relations and ethical governance are also contributors to ESG risk.

According to data from Sustainalytics, BP's overall management of material ESG issues is strong. It appears to have strong oversight over its key ESG issue. Notably, the company aims to reach net zero emissions across its entire operations (scopes 1 and 2) and upstream operations (scope 3) on an absolute basis by 2050. But nearer-term reduction targets for scope 3 emissions have recently been lowered. Moreover, BP has committed to reducing the carbon intensity of its products to net zero by 2050. However, controversies relating to environmental breaches continue to have a moderate impact on BP's overall performance.

This article is original Hargreaves Lansdown content, published by Hargreaves Lansdown. It was correct as at the date of publication, and our views may have changed since then. Unless otherwise stated estimates, including prospective yields, are a consensus of analyst forecasts provided by Refinitiv. These estimates are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Yields are variable and not guaranteed. Investments rise and fall in value so investors could make a loss.

This article is not advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment. No view is given on the present or future value or price of any investment, and investors should form their own view on any proposed investment. This article has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is considered a marketing communication. Non-independent research is not subject to FCA rules prohibiting dealing ahead of research, however HL has put controls in place (including dealing restrictions, physical and information barriers) to manage potential conflicts of interest presented by such dealing. Please see our full non-independent research disclosure for more information.

Previous BP Plc updates