This podcast isn’t personal advice. If you’re not sure what’s right for you, seek advice. Tax rules can change and benefits depend on personal circumstances.
This podcast isn’t personal advice. If you’re not sure what’s right for you, seek advice. Investments rise and fall in value, so investors could make a loss.
Full podcast episode transcript
Susannah Streeter: Hello and Welcome to Switch Your Money On from Hargreaves Lansdown. I’m Susannah Streeter – Head of Money and Markets.
Sarah Coles: And I’m Sarah Coles – Head of Personal Finance.
Susannah Streeter: And, for a change, we’re not rushing in here out of the rain, as summer returned – unhelpfully! – just as the schools were going back, so it’s all a bit too late.
I was really hoping for a sunny Sunday on the Bank Holiday weekend – but, of course, the heavens opened just as Massive Attack took to the stage in Bristol – but it was still epic, and so much better than watching it on catch-up.
Sarah Coles: It’s certainly gonna be another topsy-turvy summer, so festival weather has returned – just as we’re meant to be going back to school – and we’re meant to be hunkering down with the TV for the autumn schedule.
Susannah Streeter: It’s going to be yet another challenge for the media industry, which relies on this quarter for audiences sheltering from the weather! But it’s not just the summer upsetting the apple cart because the industry’s faced some pretty major challenges in recent years. So, we thought we should spend some time exploring the obstacles and the opportunities in the changing media landscape, in an episode we’re calling ‘Switching Channels.’
Sarah Coles: We’ll speak to Richard Exon – Founder of independent creative agency, Joint, which produces adverts for a host of both traditional media and the streamers – about how channels are changing.
So, Richard, it’s been quite a challenging few years, hasn’t it?
Richard Exon: It has, but it’s been a very exciting few years. If you speak from a brand’s perspective, what you’re seeing is more choice, more options, and – in particular, I think – working really hard to get that media mix right. So, as has often been said, ‘Video didn’t kill the radio star’ – and, as things changed, some of those channels like TV and Outdoor, in particular, are still very powerful. Clearly, they don’t have the near-monopoly they had 20 years ago, but they’re increasingly showing their value to working alongside social channels, digital advertising, etc – and getting that mix right is where the opportunity sits for our company and our clients.
Susannah Streeter: Thank you very much, Richard.
We’ll hear much more from Richard a bit later in the podcast, but we’ll also be speaking to Senior Equity Researcher, Matt Britzman, about some of the listed companies affected by the changes, including a traditional channel, a streamer, and one of the beneficiaries of the growth of online media. Plus, Emma Wall – our Head of Investment Analysis and Research – will be giving a fund management perspective.
Sarah Coles: But, before we delve into the media world, we should touch briefly on one of the biggest changes to affect both people and markets over the past few weeks – the first interest rate cut which came in August.
Susannah Streeter: The fact that the vote was split 5:4 goes to show how tough the decision was – and how close we were to getting another hold in rates. Since then, as expected, inflation has risen slightly to 2.2%, which – while not being much to write home about – doesn’t keep the pressure up for more cuts immediately.
It means it’s not safe to assume that this is the first in a rash of swift and significant cuts. At the moment, up to two more cuts are expected by the end of 2024, but, on balance, rates are expected to be kept on hold this month.
Sarah Coles: In the interim, lower rates have already started to feed into savings and mortgage rates. There aren’t massive overnight movements, but they’re starting to add up. We can expect more rate cuts to have a similar impact – so, if you’re considering whether to fix your savings, it might be worth doing so sooner rather than later – and, if you’re waiting for mortgage rates to drop before you fix, it’s worth keeping an eye on them, rather than assuming they’ll stay put until the next Bank of England rate cut.
Susannah Streeter: So, markets will be alive to any changes in expectations around rates – as well as the rates themselves – so we can expect sensitivity to any data that emerges and seems to point one way or the other on rate cuts.
Plenty to watch for in the coming weeks and months – and, speaking of ones to watch, let’s go back to the media industry, which is going through a time of very rapid and, at times, traumatic change. A regular survey of people across the industry asks, each year, whether people are feeling optimistic about the next 12 months. A year ago, more than four in five did – now, only slightly over half do.
Sarah Coles: The decline of traditional media was slow and gradual – and now feels overwhelmingly quick.
In July, the regulator, Ofcom, revealed that, for the first time, fewer than half of young adults watched traditional TV – whether live or on catch-up – in an average week last year, compared to more than three-quarters five years earlier. They spent more than three times as long watching video-sharing platforms like YouTube and TikTok.
But it’s not just this key demographic who’s switching off. Children aged 4-15 are also watching far less television, with just over half watching it in a typical week – down from four-fifths five years ago – and middle-aged viewers are also down from around nine in 10 to closer to eight in 10. It was the second year of record falls.
Susannah Streeter: As you can imagine, this is having an impact on viewing figures. The most popular drama programme in 2023 was an episode of ‘Happy Valley,’ with 12.1 million viewers – and the most popular light entertainment show was ‘Strictly Come Dancing,’ at 9.9 million.
If you go back to the year 2000, the most popular drama episode was ‘Coronation Street,’ with 18.96 million viewers – and the most popular light entertainment was ‘Who Wants to be a Millionaire?’ at 15.88 million. That’s the loss of around a third of viewers in 23 years.
Inevitably, this is having an impact on the advertising industry. Total commercial TV and online revenue was up very fractionally by less than 1%, which is behind inflation. Within that, the picture for TV was much worse, with revenue down 7.5%. Within commercial public service broadcasters, revenue was down 16%, and digital multi-channels were down 10% - and linear-advertising spend was down 14%.
These are really eye-catching falls for an entire industry – and it’s meant a slowdown in spending on content, threatening jobs within these companies and in the wider programme-making industry they help support.
Sarah Coles: So, the rise of streaming services was meant to step into the breach, with programme-makers able to switch to making shows for the new providers. These have become far more significant in recent years – and we’ve gone from a fifth of people signed up in 2015 to around two-thirds.
The amount of time we spend watching streaming services is creeping up too, but the number of viewers has plateaued more recently. While forecasts for spending on programme amongst streamers is still set to rise, it’s expected to do so far more slowly than it has more recently – and there’s been a shift to cheaper, unscripted formats.
Interestingly, the streamers are also starting to bear a resemblance to their traditional counterparts, offering adverts between programmes and running some events as live – so that this media offshoot has more in common with traditional media.
Susannah Streeter: The real outlier – and one which has taken off dramatically – is short-form online videos. One in seven people say that, when they want to watch something – and don’t have anything specific in mind – they start with YouTube.
This is a major area of growth – not just in audience, but in advertising. The online-advertising spend in this area is actually up 10% in a year – and social video advertising is up a fifth in a year.
So, this isn’t just a story of the decline in traditional media, because it’s been accompanied by a boom in online.
Of course, the story isn’t over. There’s plenty more change that we can expect and the industry will need to adapt. AI will undoubtedly play a role – and a recent survey showed that well over half of all media businesses were already either actively using or experimenting with the potential of generative AI.
Someone who’s had a ringside seat to all this change is Richard Exon – Founder at independent creative industry, Joint – who is still with us.
So, Richard – from your perspective – you’ve been already talking about how it’s been quite an upheaval over the last couple of years – but we’ve been talking about the decline of traditional media for a while, so is this really something new?
Richard Exon: Bit of both. I think there are different challenges for different parts of traditional media. In press – and magazines and newspapers – it’s really tough – and, whilst TV is in decline, long-term, it’s still hugely significant and has big audiences – particularly, as you get a bit older in the demographics. Outdoor is going through something of a boom – as Outdoor is proving itself to be really reliable.
Outdoor is posters – so, as you go by in your car – or, if you’re on the London Underground or on a train station – you’ll see those posters. Of course, the big change – which all of us, as consumers, will recognise – is almost the majority – certainly in major cities – of those sites have been digitised in recent years. So, what used to be, effectively, paper plastered to the wall are now screens showing video content as part of the advertising media plan.
Susannah Streeter: And that obviously presents quite a few opportunities for you. All of these different types of video that are now in demand – and making sure you adapt all of them?
Richard Exon: Sure – and I think the real big shift on the creative side of the industry is... 10 years ago – 15 years ago – you would remaster the really high-value television commercial – or print campaign that you’d shot for – pick a number – hundreds of thousand dollars – millions of dollars – and repurpose them to fit into smaller spaces. That’s completely gone away now.
You have to start your creative process – understanding which channels you’re gonna go into – because , if you’re creating assets for TikTok – or you’re trying to create a strategy that starts on YouTube – you’ve gotta think differently and not just rely on the old tropes from 10 or 15 years ago.
Sarah Coles: We talked a bit about the move to online advertising – so what, in particular, are people looking for in that online space? What is it that captures audiences?
Richard Exon: It’s a really intimate and personal space. To all intents and purposes, it’s most usual to think about the mobile phone. So, it’s a very up-close, personal thing – and that means people are looking for stuff that really talks to them – that is faithful to the context that it’s in. You get no points for interrupting in a clumsy way of your brand – jumping into someone’s Instagram feed – or jumping into someone’s TikTok. And, of course, people love good content. People still love provocative, different, surprising, interesting, funny content – and that’s never gonna change.
Susannah Streeter: What about the rise of the streamers – is life any easier for them? The content costs a lot to create – to keep those eyes on screen – doesn’t it?
Richard Exon: For sure – there’s lots to be said about the streamers. The first thing is to look at the scale of the companies that are fighting in that space: Disney+, Amazon, Netflix. It’ll take a long while to figure out who’s really winning – but the pressure to create new content is always there.
And, of course, there are some shifts taking place. So, Netflix, who’ve had a really successful 12 months by cracking down on shared passwords, but also introducing ad tiers to their subscriptions. So, you can pay a little bit less to be exposed to advertising.
So, what we’re seeing is... the streamers – their core is what you’d expect it to be, but they are innovating themselves to try new ways of getting that advertiser-dollar into their ecosystem, not into their competitors.
Sarah Coles: And the way that people consume the streaming services – there is a combination there between TV and mobile, isn’t there? Are those people looking for different sorts of adverts to traditional television, or are they going down that traditional route?
Richard Exon: You’ve got a few instances. So, [s.l. Pivot 12:25] – which is essentially those ads that go on just before you’re about to binge-watch one of your favourite shows – and you can’t fast-forward them. They are, in effect, traditional advertising – and they’re pretty much recognisable from what you would have had 30 years ago in the middle of a ‘Coronation Street’ break.
Other formats – and where you’re engaging between the online experience of perhaps dual-streaming. Let’s say you’re watching a sports event on Amazone Prime – you may well be engaging with that programme through its Instagram feed or its Twitter account – its X account, I should say – whilst watching the main content on your digital TV.
Sarah Coles: One of the things that seems to have happened is a sort of blending a bit more. I know that the regulators are very clear on making sure that, on social media, you say something’s an advert, but there does seem to be more of a crossover between what’s a social post and what’s an advert. Has that affected how advertisers approach things – and are they looking for things that feel more like content?
Richard Exon: That’s been a trend pre-social media. You remember the advertorials in print – which now feels like something from hundreds of years ago. That trend has been around for a while and it’s accelerated through social.
One of the things I’m very conscious of – around this topic – is every client I’ve ever worked with is hugely conscious of its responsibility to its audience – because, whilst there could be a bit of mud thrown at YouTube – or at TikTok – the brand will never want to be caught out and be seen to be anything other than honest, fair, and true.
Generally, major brands with significant media investments to make are very aware of their responsibilities – both driven by regulation, but their own internal governance and rules.
Sarah Coles: Moving to talking about your position, dealing with lots of different organisations – and producing content for them – do you think there’s going to be a time when traditional media – particularly television media – will be no more – or d’you think, whilst this older generation’s around, we will still have tele?
Richard Exon: Older and younger. If you were to speak to the likes of ITV, they could show you some interesting data around what kind of titles and content works really well with younger audiences – and you think of something like ‘Love Island’ in the last five to six years. That’s been a real hit both with the audience – and therefore with the advertisers. There is more and more data that is unarguable – that TV has a superpower within a media mix – which is, if you’re deploying advertising messages through display advertising online – and on social media – at the same time as running television advertising – your investment pays back much better across your media mix when you’ve got TV as part of it. It feels too soon to be saying, ‘It won’t exist.’
Now, I’ve got teenage kids – if you fast-forward 25 years, what form TV is in will be very interesting and hard to predict.
Sarah Coles: Can you tell me what you’re most excited about in the future – where you think the really exciting developments are going to be?
Richard Exon: We read and we experience a lot of AI – and I think it becomes fascinating to imagine, not AI in 12 months, but AI in five years’ time – where all the programmes that we’re currently getting used to – like ChatGPT – or MidJouney – aren’t twice as powerful.
I was at a presentation in March – in Texas – where it was claimed these tools will be 100,000 times more powerful in about five years’ time because of the rate of data processing. And so, that becomes fascinating to me because it’s a challenge in terms of who’s making the stuff for clients, but it’s an opportunity for companies like ours which are AI-proficient – and, ultimately, are in the position to try and – with our clients – co-author the upstream brand strategies, campaign strategies, and campaign frameworks.
So, AI is the exciting thing. Like all change, it’s – at the same time – a little bit scary, but mainly exciting.
Sarah Coles: We’re waiting for AI to start producing podcasts – and then we know we’re in trouble!
Thanks, Richard – it’s certainly not gonna be a boring time for media over the next few years, although it never really is, is it?! [Laughs]
Richard Exon: For sure – absolutely not.
Sarah Coles: Thanks very much for coming on the podcast.
Of course, within all this talk of changes to the media world, there’s also the price of podcast to consider. So, with that in mind, we have a favour to ask. We want to be sure this podcast is meeting all your needs – however they’re changing.
So, we’ve put together a survey in the Show Notes. Please do take a couple of minutes to complete it – it’ll be really appreciated – and we would really love to hear your views.
So, we like change, but we know change can be hard to navigate – particularly for the big listed companies on the media landscape. So, let’s bring in Matt Britzman here, who’s been looking at how the big names are faring – starting with traditional media and ITV.
So Matt, how’s ITV handling the challenges of today’s media landscape?
Matt Britzman: Traditionally, ITV has relied heavily on advertising revenue from its television channels, but, with the ongoing decline in broadcast TV viewership, moving ITV’s top line in the right direction has become increasingly difficult.
Susannah: How is it working to make up for this?
Matt Britzman: The bright spot for ITV is its digital advertising – particularly through its streaming platform, ITVX. Advertising revenue on ITVX is growing at a healthy pace – and the momentum is promising. However, it’s important to note that ITV’s digital offerings are still not large enough to fully counterbalance the weakness in the free-to-air side of the business.
What’s encouraging is that ITV has set a target to increase its digital revenues by about 50% by 2026, and this seems achievable. The group has access to a vast library of content, which is key to driving growth.
Sarah Coles: It all sounds very promising, but ITV operates in a fiercely competitive market. How’s it faring against its competition?
Matt Britzman: That’s one of the big challenges. Competing has led to increased production costs, which, in turn, have weight on cashflows during the first half of this year.
Susannah Streeter: With all of these moving parts, what does the financial picture look like for ITV?
Matt Britzman: Financially, ITV is in a better position than it has been in the past. Net debt has come down, which gives the company some much-needed flexibility.
ITV has certainly come a long way, but concerns about digital competition and the broader economy persist. This uncertainty is reflected in ITV’s current valuation, which is a little below its long-term average.
Sarah Coles: Thanks, Matt. Moving on to Netflix – it’s been around for quite some time, but it seems to keep outperforming expectations. What’s driving its success?
Matt Britzman: That’s right, Sarah. Netflix continues to dominate, with subscriber growth once again exceeding expectations back in July – even in the face of stiff competition from the likes of Disney+ and Amazon Prime. A key driver behind this is Netflix’s ability to reduce churn – keeping viewers loyal. This success is largely due to its investment in original content.
Sarah Coles: Netflix has also introduced an ad-supported option. How is that impacting its strategy?
Matt Britzman: It has been more popular than expected – helping Netflix tap into new markets and attract price-sensitive users. However, there’s still work to be done to fully monetize this new ad space. The company’s vast user data will also be crucial in delivering targeted ads that appeal to advertisers.
Sarah Coles: It’s also known for its global reach. How does that factor into its growth strategy?
Matt Britzman: That’s right. Netflix’s international production network is a major asset, especially as future subscriber growth is expected to come from emerging markets.
Localising content is no easy feat, but Netflix has an impressive track record here. This is critical for long-term growth because these emerging markets are where the next wave of subscribers will likely come from.
Susannah Streeter: How is Netflix handling its finances amid all of this?
Matt Britzman: Netflix’s financial position is decent, but it is still carrying a fair amount of debt. For now, the focus remains on reinvesting in content and growth rather than paying dividends, so investors shouldn’t expect to see any payouts soon.
Sarah Coles: Thanks, Matt. What was the final name you had today?
Matt Britzman: To close, I wanted to look at a more disruptive business in the media space in YouTube. YouTube, itself, isn’t a standalone business – it’s part of Alphabet’s collection of businesses along with Google search and cloud business.
YouTube is sometimes overshadowed by the likes of Netflix and Disney+, but it’s arguably one of the most disruptive forces in the streaming and media industry today. It’s also a massive business – at around 10% of Alphabet’s total revenue – and, to put some numbers on it, YouTube generated around $8bn of revenue last quarter alone.
Susannah Streeter: With the rise of platforms like TikTok – and the continued success of Netflix – how do you think YouTube is going to maintain its competitive edge?
Matt Britzman: What really sets YouTube apart is its unique content model. Unlike traditional streaming services that rely on expensive, professionally-produced content, YouTube thrives on user-generated content instead. This model not only keeps costs down, but also creates a vast and constantly refreshed library of videos that attracts millions of subscribers.
While platforms like Netflix are just starting to dip their toes into the ad-supported models – as we mentioned earlier – YouTube has been mastering it for years. This makes it a highly attractive option for advertisers, particularly given the platform’s vast audience.
Of course, investors thinking about gaining exposure to YouTube need to consider the other elements of Alphabet’s investment case – from search to Ai – and all the risks associated with those businesses as well.
Sarah Coles: Thanks, Matt – there’s certainly plenty to watch here.
Of course, the impact of this change is being seen by funds too. So, with that in mind, let’s bring in Emma Wall – our Head of Investment Analysis and Research – who’s been discussing the sector in detail with Nick Shenton of Artemis.
Emma Wall: Hi, Nick.
Nick Shenton: Hi, Emma.
Emma Wall: We’re talking about media today – perhaps you could start by explaining what you think of when you think about the media sector?
Nick Shenton: We think of it as businesses that are creating content to engage consumers. It could be the provision of social media by some of the giants from the US – and their model is monetizing us in an advertising sense.
We have investments in other companies – businesses like Informa – which is seen as a media business. That does publishing, but it also is the largest curator and owner of industry events in the world.
If you’re involved in the pharmaceutical industry, you probably go to CPHI Europe every year, where there’s 80, 90, 100,000 of your peers. And we see that as a media asset as well – creating content in a meeting place for people from all round the world.
Emma Wall: Let’s talk about revenue. Predominantly – whether we’re talking about the traditional media outlets – or we’re talking about social media – it is advertising, still, that makes up the majority of the revenues, isn’t it? But there’s also things like content licensing – and, as you said, with events – there’s obviously ticketing as well – and then physical ad space. How does that mix change over time?
Nick Shenton: It’s really about creating a space that people want to be in – and what’s so different now is the interactions that have many more levels to them. If you were to go back 120 years, you’d have print-newspaper – which is one way – and people might discuss it. Now, it’s possible to layer in many more levels of interaction and engagement. You can see that in the way that brands curate themselves through social media – and the amount of engagement.
A Manchester United fan from Ho Chi Minh City can have with the brand that they really enjoy – it’s all is a magnitude different. What we focus on – and find really intriguing – is, ‘Who has the best content?’ Because, if you’re creating something that’s valuable – that’s unique – that attracts people – you can start to leverage that more and more. And so, you can generate money, not just through advertising, but through licensing. You might even look at LSEG – London Stock Exchange Group – which licenses out a lot of the data that it generates – and that’s very valuable business and very profitable.
There are a number of ways to leverage this, but the key first principle’s point is having this differentiated, unique, intellectual property that people are really excited by.
Emma Wall: You’ve mentioned a couple of names already: Informa and LSEG. Perhaps you could share another couple of companies that you think have exciting prospects in this area?
Nick Shenton: It’s interesting – because we had this conversation with Stephen Carter – who is the CEO of Informa. That’s about an £11bn, £12bn company listed in the UK, but which has 98% of its revenue coming from overseas – and the conversation was about this point on intellectual property.
Intellectual property in the UK – while we all understand who the Beatles are – and the value of some of our amazing popstars and artists – for some reason, value’s not really understood in the stock market.
One example – which is a live example – and time will tell whether this is a good [laughs] one or not – is Pearson, which is viewed quite pejoratively by the stock market on the basis of the past – where it did underperform and it was slow to adapt to technological change – but it has core IP which is unique.
They understand how people learn as well as almost anyone in the world, and we would highlight – with the developments in AI – creates great opportunities for them to be the world’s leading learning media company. Both they and Informa are almost tired of answering the door to people trying to license their data and IP to train AI on – which we think demonstrates the value of the intellectual property that sits in those businesses.
Emma Wall: What are the challenges for those businesses? Is it that, simply, it takes a long time for the stock market to realise that value?
What are the challenges that shareholders – or prospective shareholders – should be considering when looking at these businesses?
Nick Shenton: Very simply, it’s one thing saying it – it’s another thing doing it – and, almost always, success or failure comes down to execution. So, a key part of our job is assessing the likelihood that they will succeed.
So, let’s take strategy – ‘Are the strategies in the right place?’ We believe so – we think there are very smart people running those two businesses. But the world is a very competitive place – and your IP – your content – has to stand up on a world stage.
We are highly confident that is the case within Informa’s events portfolio. We think it’s the world leading set of assets – and, as long as they curate those correctly, they are very valuable for the long term – in our view.
With Pearson, it’s more a case of demonstrating the power of their IP – and their ability to evolve and become much more engaged in technology – in order to create more value for their users – and, therefore, to create more revenue and profit for shareholders.
At the moment, we think they’re pointing in the right direction – and there are some signs of progress – but our job is really assessing how they’re progressing.
Emma Wall: Nick – thank you very much.
Nick Shenton: Thanks, Emma.
Susannah Streeter: That was Emma Wall talking to Nick Shenton of Artemis – and, please, bear in mind that these are the views of the fund manager and are not individual stock recommendations.
You’re listening to Switch Your Money On from Hargreaves Lansdown. Before we go, there is time for a quick fact of the week.
Let’s go back to the most watched TV shows of 2023. So, I have already mentioned that ‘Happy Valley’ was the most watched drama, but it was beaten by another programme, which managed 12.1 million.
So, I have three options for you:
Was it the Eurovision Song Contest
The Coronation
Or something else?
Sarah Coles: If it was this year, I’d say it’s the football. I know Eurovision’s a massive international audience – and I’m not sure about the UK. I’ll go with the Coronation.
Susannah Streeter: I’m afraid you’re wrong. King Charles clocked up 12 million viewers – which was ahead of Eurovision at 10 million – but both were beaten by ‘Happy Valley.’
In fact, the most watched TV was BBC One’s New Year’s Eve Fireworks, with an average 12.1 million viewers.
And the football would have beaten it. The final of the Euros picked up 11.4 million viewers on the BBC, but another 3.7 million on ITV.
Sarah Coles: Ah, yes – I can testify to the fact there was an awful lot of football dominating my lounge this summer – it was hard to avoid.
Susannah Streeter: Was it accompanied by a lot of beer? It was claimed that 17 million pints were poured on the day of the Euro Final alone.
Sarah Coles: Beer and football – what’s not to love?!
Susannah Streeter: That’s all from us for this time – but, before we go, we do need to remind you that this was recorded on 2nd September 2024 and all information was correct at the time of recording.
Sarah Coles: Nothing in this podcast is personal advice – you should seek advice if you’re not sure what’s right for you. Investments and any income they produce can rise and fall in value, so you could get back less than you invest – and past performance is not a guide to the future.
Susannah Streeter: Yes – this is not advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment. No view is given on the present or future value or price of any investment, and investors should form their own view on any proposed investment.
Sarah Coles: And this hasn’t been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is considered a marketing communication.
Susannah Streeter: Non-independent research is not subject to FCA rules prohibiting dealing ahead of research. However, HL has put controls in place (including dealing restrictions, physical and information barriers) to manage potential conflicts of interest presented by such dealing.
Sarah Coles: You can see our full non-independent research disclosure on our website for more information. So, all that’s left is for us to thank our guests: Richard, Nick, Matt, Emma, and our Producer, Elizabeth Hotson.
Susannah Streeter: Thank you very much for listening. We’ll be back again soon – goodbye!