Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 has reignited debate about the US’ approach to energy. Early directives spotlight a renewed emphasis on oil, gas and coal, with the president prioritising energy independence above all else.
The White House has branded Biden’s ‘Green New Deal’ the ‘Green New Scam’, signalling an administration keen to roll back climate-driven programmes.
References to climate science have been wiped from government websites, and overseas clean-tech research funding has halted. Critics warn these measures could hurt low-income communities and limit opportunities for broader sustainable economic growth, while supporters praise the removal of what they see as burdensome regulations.
Although traditional energy stands front and centre right now, Trump’s stances often shift when the potential for economic growth and job creation –particularly in Republican-leaning states – becomes too compelling to ignore.
The result is a fluid policy landscape, with each new announcement roiling markets and shaping the debate over what ‘green’ truly means in America today.
But which sectors and stocks could benefit most and which could lose out?
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Who are the potential winners?
The most obvious beneficiaries look to be traditional fossil fuels, thanks to loosened regulations and fresh support for exploration on federal lands. Gas producers, in particular, could see a lift if American energy security remains top of Trump’s agenda.
Nuclear power is also expected to benefit. The new head of the US Energy Department has confirmed that expanding domestic energy production will be his top priority, with a particular focus on nuclear power. Nuclear is seen as a reliable energy source with fewer emissions, fitting the narrative of home-grown production, without heavy reliance on imports.
US primary energy consumption by major sources, 1950-2023
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) might also gain traction.
It’s a technology that can help address emissions without turning away from coal, oil or gas. This could satisfy lawmakers who want both economic growth and a nod to environmental concerns.
Cameco
Given Trump’s ‘drill-baby-drill’ rhetoric it might seem odd to think of a renewables stock as one to benefit from the new administration. But unlike areas like solar and wind, Trump has been relatively upbeat about the need for more nuclear power.
Cameco, a Canada-based uranium giant is already riding improving trends, with full-year commentary noting higher uranium prices and production ramp-ups to meet rising demand.
Trump’s push to streamline regulations – criticising delays in nuclear plant construction – could accelerate this momentum, especially as geopolitical tensions and the artificial intelligence energy revolution drive uranium needs.
Nearly 90% of global uranium consumption comes from countries with little domestic supply, positioning Cameco’s assets in stable regions as a strategic advantage.
The balance sheet is currently strong and with operations ramping back up, cash flows have improved too. That’s paved the way for an improved dividend program, though no shareholder returns are guaranteed.
Rising concerns about energy supply and a re-evaluation of nuclear energy's role means we could be at an inflection point for uranium demand. Cameco is a well-placed name to capitalise on this, and high barriers to entry help keep competitors at bay. But ups and downs should be expected along the way.
Who are the potential losers?
Pure-play electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers look likely to come under strain as federal incentives and mandates are rolled back. The Trump administration is already shutting down federal EV charging stations, halting highway charging station construction and is attempting to rescind grants for EV and battery factories.
This is bad for the EV industry in America because it reduces government support and infrastructure, making it harder for consumers to access EVs and for manufacturers to grow their businesses.
Number of new electric vehicles sold, 2019-2024
Offshore wind is also expected to face hurdles as the president’s hostility towards the sector has been clear. Trump has indicated he will end crucial government support in the form of federal lease sales, permits, and subsidies.
Orsted
Orsted is the world’s largest offshore wind developer, so it might not come as a major surprise to see it pegged as a name under pressure from the Trump administrations energy stance.
That said, it would be fair to say the wind sector has been under pressure for a while now, with Trump’s win simply adding to the pressure.
Rising costs, supply chain disruptions, and higher interest rates have created a challenging environment, particularly evident in the US, where project delays and cost overruns have led to impairments for developers like Orsted in recent years.
The challenging market means Orsted has switched to a lower-growth mode, focusing on only the most attractive opportunities. This was a welcome move and kept a capital raise at bay, but the dividend was a casualty, suspended until at least 2027.
We think the lack of balance sheet flexibility will likely keep growth restrained over the medium term.
Outside the US, the offshore wind industry is back in growth mode, so there’s still a longer-term opportunity for Orsted to spearhead the renewable transition. But the path ahead is murky, and even in friendlier regions, larger scale projects carry a decent chunk of execution risk.
Markets typically react to policy signals before full details emerge.
Some states – ranging from California to Texas – already have robust clean energy initiatives that could continue under local legislation, regardless of federal stance. If these projects show clear economic benefits and job creation, Trump could soften his position, particularly in regions relying on renewables.
Ultimately, energy independence is the core theme. Traditional fossil fuels might enjoy the spotlight for now, but the future isn’t written in stone.
This article is original Hargreaves Lansdown content, published by Hargreaves Lansdown. It was correct as at the date of publication, and our views may have changed since then. Unless otherwise stated estimates, including prospective yields, are a consensus of analyst forecasts provided by LSEG. These estimates are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Past performance is not a guide to the future. Investments rise and fall in value so investors could make a loss. Yields are variable and not guaranteed.
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