Feeding Inflation

Susannah Streeter: Hello and welcome to the Switch Your Money On podcast from Hargreaves Lansdown. I'm Susannah Streeter, I'm the senior investment and markets analyst here at Hargreaves Lansdown, and as usual I'm with Sarah Coles, our senior personal finance analyst. Today we are exploring food prices and shopping trends, from the rise of the discounters and budget ranges to the rise of Spam. I kid you not. According to the Waitrose food and drink tracker, fish heads and Spam sales are up by more than 30%. I don't think they are ingredients for the same meal though, you will be relieved to hear.

Sarah Coles: That is a relief, although I'm not sure anything made with either of them sounds completely delicious. We're also going to cover trends in less unusual food and prices, including the rocketing prices of milk, cheese and pasta, and look at what's behind the shocking price rises we've seen recently.

Susannah Streeter: We're going to speak to Paul Cheema who runs his family business, Malcolm's Stores, in Coventry, and he's been coping with these trends at the sharp end. Paul is with us on the line now. Paul, tell us a little bit about your business.

Paul Cheema: So, we've got two stores in Coventry, one petrol station and one convenience store. So, look, we've been trading for 40 years, well, my parents have, in this area, and we're going through a tough time and some changes with consumer shopping now.

Susannah Streeter: It's definitely a really challenging time for food sales, Paul, and we look forward to finding out all about it later in the podcast. We'll also be talking to Sophie Lund-Yates, our Lead Equity Analyst here at Hargreaves Lansdown about some of the listed companies and how they're coping. Hi, Sophie, you've got some pretty big names under the microscope this week, haven't you?

Sophie Lund-Yates: Hi, Susannah, yes, definitely. I'll be covering M&S, Sainsbury's and Premier Foods, the makers of some of our most loved branded food, including the delights of Mr Kipling cakes.

Sarah Coles: Plus, as always, we'll hear from the HL's Head of Investment Analysis and Research, Emma Wall, who'll be speaking to Chris Murphy, Equity Income Fund Manager at Aviva Investors, about food prices, how they're impacting the big supermarket retailers, and how he analyses the pressure on these companies.

Susannah Streeter: We'll have the quiz, of course, and I have high hopes for you in the food quiz, Sarah, because your highest scores so far have been when I asked you about chocolate.

Sarah Coles: I know your quizzes though, so it's probably going to be all about Spam and fish heads, and I'm not really an expert on that front.

Susannah Streeter: You'll have to wait and see, because we need to start with some of the eye-watering rises in the price of food, and the fact that the rise in the price of food and non-alcoholic drink hit 14.5% in the twelve months to September. It means the annual rate of food inflation has accelerated every month for the past fourteen months, and according to the Office for National Statistics, hasn't been this high since 1980. We saw some really painful rises in the price of some essentials, including low-fat milk, up 42.1%, which is an enormous jump, margarine up 30.5%, and cheese up 23.1%. So, that's up almost a quarter in a year.

Sarah Coles: Yes, more recent Kantar figures show it rose again in October to 14.7%, and there was still no sign of a peak, and in response we're seeing a wave of people trading down from premium brands to supermarket own-brands. The Kantar figures showed sales of branded goods were up less than 1% in October, while own-brands soared over 10%, however, the really striking growth is in the budget brands, where sales were up 42%. We're also seeing the discounters flourishing, so Aldi sales are up around 23% in a year, and its marketshare is over 9%, while Lidl is up 22% and its marketshare is over 7%, which is a new record for Lidl. Barclaycard also found that more than four in ten are opting for cheaper wonky vegetables, and one in four are only buying items that are discounted or on offer.

Susannah Streeter: Of course, while average earners have room to manoeuvre and can ease the pressure by trading down, people on lower incomes are hit harder because they spend a larger proportion of their income on the essentials, and if they're already shopping the budget ranges they're left with truly horrible choices about what they can live without in their weekly shop.

Sarah Coles: Yes, and to make matters worse, the price of the cheapest ranges of food in the supermarkets is actually rising faster, with budget ranges up 17% in a year. The Office for National Statistics says that price rises for some staples are really horrible, with pasta up 60% and tea up 46% in a year.

Susannah Streeter: So, where has all of this come from? Well, there's no one simple answer. There was a big spike in food prices on commodity exchanges after the invasion of Ukraine, as fears of a global food crisis intensified. Together, Russia and Ukraine made up around a third of global wheat exports, and many low and middle income countries, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, are super-reliant on imports of grain from the region, known as the bread basket of Europe. Of course, the invasion came at a time when food stocks were already vulnerable after droughts and poor harvests, partly because climate change has made agriculture more unpredictable in many parts of the world.

Sarah Coles: Commodity prices feed through into the prices on the shelves in a huge number of ways, rather than just the price of the raw ingredients. If, for example, you look at something like milk, the wheat price feeds into the cost because it forms a key part of animal feed, but farmers also have to deal with the cost of fertiliser, which requires ammonia, which itself requires gas, which of course rose dramatically in price after the invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions. Then there's the cost of red diesel used in tractors, which also soared, plus the cost of the energy required in the milking process, and the higher wages of farm workers, and all this is just before it leaves the farm. So, then of course the milk needs to be processed, involving energy-intensive pasteurisation, and the higher cost of running and staffing the bottling process, and of course at any stage where anything needs to be transported, diesel, lorries and HGV drivers bring additional expense, and that's all before it enters the supermarket, which needs heating and lighting and staffing, all of which are more expensive. Of course, that's just milk, which is produced close to home. When food is imported there's the impact of the falling sterling too, making anything that's imported more expensive.

Susannah Streeter: Looking ahead, there may be some better news, because the big spike in food prices, which we saw on commodity exchanges after the war in Ukraine, has largely subsided, with Black Sea routes reopening under a UN initiative, despite a brief hiatus as Russia left and we joined the deal earlier this month. Prices have calmed down. Global food prices, measured by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation's index, declined for the sixth month in a row in September to pre-invasion levels, plus good harvests in big exporter nations like Australia, Argentina and Brazil were helping to rapidly bring down maize and wheat prices even before the Black Sea initiative began, and falling gas prices, which affect fertiliser costs have also helped. However, global markets are still relatively tight and there are worries that if fresh export restrictions, similar to those India brought in, are imposed by large nations, volatility could resume, and that could happen if weather patterns are disrupted and crop failures spark worries of short supplies. So, there's still an awful lot of uncertainty hanging over food prices, so it seems like a good time to bring in our lead equity analyst, Sophie Lund-Yates, who can shine a light on some of the listed companies affected by food prices. Sophie, shall we start with Premier Foods?

Sophie Lund-Yates: Yes, definitely a good one to get stuck into first, if you'll pardon that pun. Premier Foods is the company that you didn't know you've already heard of really. It's responsible for brands including Bisto, Oxo, Ambrosia, Lloyd Grossman, Cadbury Cakes and Mr Kipling. So, cupboard staples like this are a lot easier to sell in times of low consumer confidence when compared to more discretionary items. They're also lower value and convenience offerings, so not the sort of thing that you might consider as a stretch in these tougher times. The group has annual revenues of around £900 million and pre-tax profit of around £102 million. I'd also say that it's worth noting that the group's balance sheet is in good health with net debt equivalent to 1.7 times the group's cash profits, which you'll see abbreviated as EBITDA in their results, for those of you that want to go and do some digging. By current estimates the dividend does look very well-supported, which means there's scope for growth in the future, in my opinion, and of course no dividend is ever guaranteed. Now, I think Premier Foods has a lot going for it, but as ever, there are some things to be mindful of. A big one is the surge of own-brand offerings at supermarkets. So, things like, you know, gravy granules, for example, there was a time when you wouldn't think about a supermarket copy, but that's not the case anymore.

So, the group's strong brands will mean that there is a cohort of loyal and returning customers, but I also think it likely that some sales are going to be lost during the cost of living crisis. The valuation, which looks at the share price in comparison to expected earnings growth, is also quite high on a long-term average basis. Now, that reflects the confidence the market has in Premier Foods over the long-term, but it does increase the likelihood of ups and downs.

Susannah Streeter: So, that's Premier Foods. What about Marks & Spencer? Signs of resilience?

Sophie Lund-Yates: Yes, to some extent, and as much as I'd like to, I won't be digging into the clothing and home aspects of M&S today, but I'm going to focus on their food offering instead. So, M&S food is a genuine asset, in my opinion. So, while middle of the ground food retailers face a big challenge in the current climate, M&S's differentiated proposition makes it stand out. A classic M&S customer isn't going to stop coming because of current inflationary pressures. The group's convenience offerings are a source of growth potential in my opinion too, because places like train stations are going to see more stable footfall than city centres, say. I also think it's important to talk about Ocado as well, with the online platform, which is half-owned by M&S. So, Ocado retail has seen sales disappoint because of cost pressures on its customers. Some of this could transfer to M&S's food offering, but this is different to Ocado. Ocado is an all-in grocer, whereas M&S is more about smaller shops and convenience rather than somewhere to do your full big shop. That does put it in a different bucket. I would say that the next few months are going to be crucial.

Christmas is typically boom time for M&S, the time of year people want to make things feel extra special and will splash out if they can. We did hear recently that M&S food sales in the last few weeks have been up about 3%, which is slower than the rate of growth earlier in the year, but not a bad showing, in my opinion, and of course we can't rule out that a higher proportion of customers than expected might trade down to a different supermarket, and if that were to happen there would be a reaction from the market.

Susannah Streeter: Okay, Sophie, thanks for that. That's a snapshot on Marks & Spencer. Now let's turn to Sainsbury's, because plenty of headwinds for the grocer, aren't there?

Sophie Lund-Yates: Yes, there certainly are, so Sainsbury's management made it clear at the beginning of November that customers are tightening their purse strings, shopping around for deals and choosing own-label brands are definitely recurring themes. To keep hold of customers Sainsbury's is investing heavily to keep prices low, and has managed to increase prices after its competitors, which helps it appear better value. Now, these tactics are working. Compared to key competitors like Tesco, Asda and Morrisons, Sainsbury's is the only one to grow volume share since pre-pandemic times. Now, offering value doesn't come cheap though, and it's having a real impact on the profit line. Underlying operating profit fell 8% to £496 million in the first half of the financial year, thanks to a mixture of those low prices and higher than expected cost inflation. I am the first to admit Sainsbury's is doing better than I expected, and doing all it can in a very tough environment. Essentially though, I think the next few months at least are going to be very tough, and things may get worse before they get better.

Susannah Streeter: Okay, Sophie, thank you very much. I know we'll be keeping a close eye on all of those in the weeks and months to come. I should add that this is not advice or recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment, no view is given on the present or future value or price of any investment, and investors should form their own view on any proposed investment. Okay, so let's turn to somebody who's been living through runaway food prices. Paul Cheema runs his family business, Malcolm's Stores, in Coventry. Paul, really great to have you on the podcast today. Tell us a little bit about what it's been like over the past few months and weeks as the cost of living crisis has intensified. What kind of changes are you seeing in the behaviour of your customers?

Paul Cheema: As the cost of running consumers' homes is increasing, there's a shift in behaviour now. So, are we selling more own-branded products, so are people trading down? Yes, they are. We heard earlier that, you know, is Bisto relevant or is Co-op own-label gravy more relevant now to the shopping basket? So, I think the housewife of today is looking at how can you fill that basket with probably the same spend as before, but what else can go in that basket? So, that's the change we're seeing, so there is more value shopping, but there are still treats that are going on, so people still want that treat at the weekend as well, whether that was from spending outside in restaurants, now they're doing that at home with scratch cooking or treating them to some wine and that at the weekend. So, we've noticed a big change, but again, we have to now change our behaviour and what we do in the store to still try and maximise our store sales to keep our revenue up as well.

Sarah Coles: So, are you changing your promotions or where certain products are placed in your store?

Paul Cheema: Yes, so with the new regulations on the high fat, sugar and salt that came in, where we'd get the treats at the front of store we couldn't do that anymore, so we had to change that with food items, so meal prep items at the front of the store, bringing that in as a value proposition, creating meal deal solutions in the store, so, you know, how can you maximise a couple of pizzas and four bottles of beer for £5, or actually making that fajita kit on a deal? So, we've had to look at different things, and the good thing where we are now, we work with another family business, which is Bestway Retail, so they understand the values that go on in neighbourhood stores, whereas some of the corporates, they miss that. So, we're having to look at every bay in the store, we're actually now looking, how do we remodel the store in January by cutting out some of the lines, but replacing with new value sections, or actually, you know, a bit of indulgence as well? Because, like I said, consumers still want that indulgence at the weekend, they still want to have that treat for the kids. So, it's a lot of work that's going on at the moment.

Susannah Streeter: So, is there a possibility that you could actually turn away from some of the best-known-brands to find items that you think your customers will be more willing to fill up their baskets with because they're at a lower price point?

Paul Cheema: I'll give you an example. Do we need to be stocking four different brands of tomato ketchup anymore? Probably not so. We could get away with one branded and one own-label, so consumer choice gets smaller in the store. That's what we're having to do, but we're having to go elsewhere now to look for those value products to fill those sections in the store.

Sarah Coles: When you talk about treats, are you seeing nostalgic brands or traditional brands becoming more popular?

Paul Cheema: One of the ones that still sells really well for us is Ambrosia rice pudding. It's always been there, it's always a key line, and it just keeps moving on, but you go into home baking, that's one of the things that came out of COVID, it taught people to cook more at home. So, more the kids are getting into the home baking, it goes on with what goes on with TV as well, you know, so that plays back into the sales of local shops as well.

Susannah Streeter: It's really interesting that you're saying that perhaps there is this change in behaviour and that people are spending more time at home, so-called 'insperience', people spending time inside their homes, a bit like they did during the pandemic. Are you seeing some of those pandemic habits return?

Paul Cheema: Yes and no. I mean, we started home delivery through pandemic, didn't really work for us, so we just left it on the side of the business and we actually just focussed on what's happening in the store. I think people are shopping little and often now. We're about introducing new brands into our business next year, so, you know, first time we'll be offering some of the Iceland offering in a local store. We've had to go down that route now because, you know, we feel that's what the consumer wants, so we're reacting to consumer behaviour all the time.

Susannah Streeter: Are you facing supply issues though? You may want to stock certain brands or certain types of products but are you worried about actually getting your hands on them?

Paul Cheema: Yes, we are, and, you know, just earlier in the year, probably about three months ago, we changed our route to market, and I mention Bestway Retail because it's a family business and they understand the importance of the independence retailer and where they're actually trading. So, my supply into stores now is better because my route to market now has three or four different options where we can purchase the stock from. So, our availability's normally about 97%, 98% all the time now, which is really good, whereas before, we were using one route and we had to go out and buy stock, it's actually, you know, you've got to look at your business and who can support your business.

Susannah Streeter: What about energy costs because I know that lots of businesses are getting some support from the government for now but are you concerned about your costs shooting up again in the future?

Paul Cheema: Oh, for sure. So, when we had the scary thought of where my energy was going from and we were paying, like, 14p on my old contract, and it suddenly jumped to 37p, then we've seen the new prices that were nearly touching £1 before, you know, there was little bit of support from the government for these few months. Now, as any business, we have to look at shopper spend and we can't pass that cost onto the consumer, right, because we're scared about losing customers but is it impacting the business? Yes. Has it impacted profit? Yes. Has the family now had to step in and do more trading hours in the business? Yes. So, it's impacted us at a store level, right, but can we sustain that going forward? No, we can't. So, we do have to then start looking at what we do in the new year. Like I said, we've had to change what we do in store and probably cut out some of them products that we don't need anymore. Has waste gone up? Yes, and we've got this app that runs that and we can do a mystery bag at the end of the night. We're seeing more of that happening in-store now. That's helped us reduce our waste and what we're actually then putting in the bins, which is actually then being to landfills, right?

Sarah Coles: What about change in behaviour in terms of shoplifting? Have you seen an increase?

Paul Cheema: Oh look, don't get me started on that one but this has been ongoing for a long, long time. It's not going to go away. Shoplifting, in my views, is always not in the correct mind of ministers, in the correct mind of the local police because there's no support, whether you're a little, small neighbourhood store or you're M&S or Sainsbury's or whoever you might be. There's no support for the retail side but that puts an impact also on your bottom line, right? So, if someone comes in the store and says, 'Look, we physically haven't got any money for food,' yes, we'd help them but don't take product from my store and don't abuse my staff. That's the bit we did notice when there was the whole thing going on with the fuel crisis there was a lot of abuse to sales teams, and that wasn't just at my store. That's happening nationwide. We're only governed by the cost that comes in to us, so we can only pass that cost on because we have to do that on fuel, but shoplifting has risen. Actually, through the pandemic, shoplifting actually-, it was null and void, we didn't get hardly any. We come out of the pandemic and shoplifting's probably at its highest again.

Susannah Streeter: So, I suppose it's very difficult for you because, on one hand, you do understand why some people might be driven to that, but on the other hand, you need some support to stop it.

Paul Cheema: Well, I think the whole of the retail sector, even the electrical superstores, where you actually need more support from the government, and maybe, you know, the government need to publish the right messages, not publish this message that they had, 'If you take X amount of stock up to X amount of value, you won't be prosecuted.' If the shoplifting continues, you'll see, you know, the local stores that keep the high street going, they'll start disappearing because that's how big the problem is at the moment.

Susannah Streeter: Okay, Paul, well, thank you so much for talking to us. It's clearly a really challenging time but I can see you're working really hard to try and keep your business going, and the best of luck with it.

Paul Cheema: No, thank you very much. Look, we've been here for 40 years and we'll carry on the doing greatest job for our community.

Susannah Streeter: If you're enjoying this podcast, please do let us know what you think and do subscribe wherever you get your podcasts, so you get a fresh, new episode in your inbox as soon as it's ready.

Sarah Coles: Let's bring in Emma Wall now, our Head of Investment Analysis and Research here at HL. She's been speaking to Chris Murphy, Equity Income Fund Manager at Aviva Investors, about food price rises and how they're impacting the big supermarkets.

Emma Wall: Hi, Chris.

Chris Murphy: Hi, how are you?

Emma Wall: I'm good, thanks, how are you?

Chris Murphy: Very good, very good, enjoying exciting markets.

Emma Wall: Indeed, and that's what we're here to talk about today, and in particular, food prices, otherwise known as soft commodities, which have had quite significant macroeconomic tailwinds over the last six to twelve months. Maybe you could start us off with a recap on how food prices have rallied over the year.

Chris Murphy: Yes, I think we're in a pretty unprecedented period. The real drivers really comes from the shock of the Ukrainian invasion, what's Russia doing, what it's effectively doing to one of the bread-baskets of Europe, which has then also knocked on to energy costs, oil and gas, which continue to be exceptionally strong, and clearly, that also feeds into, you know, the processing of foods. It goes completely through all supply chains, doesn't matter what products you buy, if people buy a bar of chocolate that isn't just all pure cocoa, there are lots of fillers, lots of other products to give it extra tastes and textures, and that has exposure to all the commodity prices that people can see in the press that are going up on a daily basis.

Emma Wall: Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine earlier this year, we'd also had impact from coronavirus, hadn't we, which really impacted supply and demand, and, indeed, supply chains. It's been a strange few years for that supply/demand balance, hasn't it?

Chris Murphy: You know, it's not just in the food industry and soft commodities, it is everywhere. There have been big dislocations, and just as we thought we were getting through it from the pandemics, we've obviously had then the oil price shocks. I think some of the dislocations that we've had aren't going to go away. If you're picking crops, that needs people. If you're picking apples in the UK, if you don't have the labour, you either don't have enough produce, which is obviously inflationary, or you have to pay more for that labour.

Emma Wall: Of course you can invest in the, sort of, raw commodities themselves, in futures of bushels and wheat and even some fruit and veg and hogs but as you said, with your example of the chocolate bar, it's not just the underlying commodities that have had the effect. It actually goes all the way through the supply chain, right up to things like supermarkets, which I know you invest in. So, how do you begin to analyse those, kind of, food retailers when you have all this huge background noise and this macroeconomic uncertainty?

Chris Murphy: There's an element of judgement and experience that comes into it. There's meeting the companies face-to-face to discuss what they see and how they will cope with it. If you look at Tesco, it's got big cost headwinds through this year of £500, £600 million from labour and energy costs. Tesco is something like 1% of UK energy demand. The costs side isn't so bad, you can, sort of, have the numbers and play with them in spreadsheets. The hardest bit to actually analyse is how the consumer will react. If you're buying luxury Christmas puddings, for example, will you trade down? Will you change the size and the shape of your shopping basket, i.e. how much how you buy and what you put in? So, the way we try and get round that is then looking at market position, the product offering, and one of the things I would say about Tesco is they've been quite vocal, which has been smart, in saying they're here to help the consumer during the cost crisis, which I think has gone down well. Over recent years, they've also worked very strongly on their price architecture, which is basically their range, particularly versus the discounter, and they're considerably more competitive than they were during the financial crisis, for example. So, if people do want to trade down, Tesco are in a much better position than they have been for multiple years.

Emma Wall: All of us, when faced with higher prices, do look for ways to save money, and the discounters, like the Aldis and the Lidls, have been quite a threat to not just Tesco but also Sainsbury's, Morrisons, which there's a conversation about a potential takeover there. So, how much are those discounters really challenging those, you know, UK food retail stalwarts?

Chris Murphy: The Aldis and the Lidls, you know, they have been a huge disruptor. It doesn't feel like that long ago they had zero market share, and now, they're around 15% of the UK market, but in terms of how much share they've been gaining, you know, the rate of growth has slowed down dramatically from when they first started. Their pricing and their scale does mean it's harder for them to continue to cut costs. If we look at the moment, the industry data seems to point to that the Aldis and Lidls of this world are actually passing on more cost to the consumer through, you know, the soft commodity inflation than the likes of Tesco are, which aids Tesco's position competitively. Versus the rest of the industry, I think there are issues, Sainsbury's is a lot more levered than Tesco, and obviously they have a debt finance cost, so I think their flexibility isn't as great. In terms of Morrisons that you mentioned, you know, they now have gone through a deal, private equity owned, that have taken on a lot of debt. They're trying to change a business, sell off stores at a very difficult time, so you, sort of, wonder if they've got the eye on the ball of being a food retailer, and food retailing in the UK is very competitive, you know, strong Christmas campaigns, good promotions, getting price-points right are really very important.

Emma Wall: Chris, thank you very much.

Chris Murphy: Pleasure, thank you very much your time.

Susannah Streeter: Well, that was Emma Wall, Head of Investment Analysis and Research here at HL speaking to Chris Murphy at Aviva Investors, and please bear in mind that these are the views of the fund manager and are not individual stock recommendations. You're listing to Switch Your Money On from Hargreaves Lansdown. So, now it's time for the quiz, and I promise Spam won't come up, although I can't guarantee to avoid detailed questions on fish heads, but let's start with something a bit tastier, Christmas puddings. According to Kantar, in October last year, 2 million people had already bought their Christmas pudding but how does that compare with this year? Are we even keener, with the number of puddings up to around 3 million? Are we holding steady at around 2 million or have they fallen below 1.5 million?

Sarah Coles: Ooh, that's really tricky because people will want to spread the cost of Christmas but then again, they might not have the extra cash to start Christmas shopping at the moment. So, I'm going to hedge my bets, I'm going to say they're roughly the same, at 2 million.

Susannah Streeter: I am sorry, the early Christmas pudding shoppers have dropped by around a third to under 1.5 million. That is still a lot of festive puddings but it does raise the question of how we're going to squeeze our Christmas shopping out of fewer pay packets this year. Okay, sticking with shopping habits, research from Barclaycard looked into some of the things we're doing to cut costs. It also asked people whether they were making efforts to grow their own veg. So, how many people said they were having a go in the garden? Was it one in eight, one in ten or one in twelve?

Sarah Coles: Well, I have to admit, I did try this during the pandemic and spent a small fortune on tomato plants that only ever ended up feeding the snails, so I definitely won't be trying that again, but given how much I hate gardening, I suppose if I tried it, then everyone else probably did as well. So, I'll go with the highest number, which is, I think, one in eight.

Susannah Streeter: Yes, you're right, I have to say, it's a trend I've tried but have repeatedly failed at. Anyway, let's move on to cooking trends now, I'm a bit better at that, and those fish heads-, no not really, though there are some really great fish-head curry recipes, did you know, and fish soup, so don't knock it until you've tried it, I'm particularly keen on a French fish soup recipe, but this is about TikTok. So, how many 18 to 24-year-olds have found foodie inspiration on TikTok this year? Is it 71%, 51% or 31%?

Sarah Coles: Well, if my kids are anything to go by, they learn everything on TikTok, so I'll go with 71%.

Susannah Streeter: No, it's 51%, just a tad over half but you can get a bonus point if you can tell me how many followers Gordon Ramsay has on TikTok. Is it 3.1 million, 15.2 million or 34.8 million?

Sarah Coles: Ooh, well I know all figures on TikTok are crazy, so I'm going to go with 34.8 million.

Susannah Streeter: You are right, people just can't get enough of him commenting on other people's questionable recipes. Okay, finally, given how difficult life is at the moment, it looks like we're sneaking some indulgent treats into the supermarket trolley to help us comfort eat through the pain but roughly how many of us are regularly treating ourselves to a nice bar of chocolate or a pudding? Is it about a quarter, about a third or about a half?

Sarah Coles: I think we need all the comfort food we can get at the moment, if that's a steamed pudding or a Viennetta, then why not, so I'll go for half.

Susannah Streeter: Wow, yes, you're on a roll. Apparently, 46% of us are opting for sweet treats, maybe to ease the pain of the supermarket bill.

Sarah Coles: Actually, we have a Viennetta in the freezer, so that's my lunch sorted.

Susannah Streeter: I think, in this weather, I'd rather go for the steamed pudding. That is all from us this time but before we go, we do need to remind you that this was recorded on 14th November 2022 and all information was correct at the time of recording.

Susannah Streeter: Nothing in this podcast is personal advice. You should seek advice if you're not sure what's right for you. Investments rise and fall in value, so you could get back less than you invest. Past performance isn't a guide to the future.

Sarah Coles: This hasn't been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is considered a marketing communication.

Susannah Streeter: Non-independent research is not subject to FCA rules prohibiting dealing ahead of research. However, HL has put controls in place, including dealing restrictions, physical and information barriers to manage potential conflicts of interest presented by such dealing.

Sarah Coles: You can see our full non-independent research disclosure on our website for more information. So, all that's left for me is to thank your guests, Paul, Chris, Sophie, Emma and our producer, Elizabeth Hotson.

Susannah Streeter: Thank you so much for listening, goodbye.