Meta reported third-quarter revenue of $40.6bn ($40.0bn expected), up 20% when ignoring currency moves. Operating profit was up 26% to $17.4bn, significantly better than expected on good cost control, and margins rose from 40% to 43%.
The number of people using at least one of Meta’s apps on a daily basis rose 5% to 3.29bn. Average price per ad rose 11%.
Cash and short-term investments totalled $70.9bn and there was net cash, including leases, of $21.9bn. Free cash flow rose 14% to $15.5bn, despite a 36% increase in capital expenditure (capex) to $9.2bn as AI investment ramps up.
Fourth-quarter revenue is expected in the range of $45-48bn, and capex guidance for the full-year has been raised a touch to $38-40bn.
The shares fell 2.6% in pre-market trading.
Our view
The Meta story continues to be dominated by its mammoth capex plans, and what that might mean as we move into 2025. Looking at guidance, it doesn’t appear that Meta’s been able to deploy as much capital as it would have liked over the past few quarters, so the fourth quarter could be playing catchup with close to $15bn needed to be spent to hit targets.
We don’t know if that kind of run rate is what to expect in 2025, commentary suggests not, but that’s likely to cause some near-term caution from investors.
Taking a step back, recent changes at Meta have been profound. Since 2022 quarterly revenue has grown 46% while its headcount has dropped by 17%. This period of getting lean is what’s enabled Meta to go all guns blazing on the AI opportunities laid out before it.
Mark Zuckerberg has been very clear that he’d rather overspend now than risk losing Meta’s leadership position. We think this approach is the right one, but it comes with risks. The cash required to build and train AI models is eye-watering, and while the impact of all this investment on the profit line is spread over time, if revenue doesn’t keep pace, margins will eventually come under pressure.
On that point, we are starting to see tangible evidence that the core advertising business is benefiting from AI. Advertising growth comes in two parts, price and volume. Meta’s scale and growing user base helps drive the volume equation.
The price side requires advertisers to feel they’re getting more bang for their buck. That’s where AI comes in, helping to optimise ad-targeting, engagement and efficiency. We’ve heard anecdotal stories of how these tools help advertisers, but seeing price now as a major part of ad-revenue growth suggests they’re delivering genuine improvements for Meta’s customers.
Meta likes to split AI into two buckets. Core AI is building the tools to help engage users and improve ad performance. Then there’s the generative AI, the more speculative side of things, which involves new tools like Meta AI, the large language model embedded into Meta’s apps. These are in a much earlier phase and, along with the ongoing investment into Metaverse products, are where we see the biggest risks.
We see Meta as well placed to drive AI-related growth and continue its dominance in the ad and social networking world. The key risk to manage is the investment cycle. Meta has gotten ahead of itself in the past, and investors won’t want to see that happen again.
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) risk
The technology sector is generally medium/low risk in terms of ESG, though some segments are more exposed, like Electronic Components (environmental risks) and data monetisers (social risks). Business ethics tend to be a material risk within the tech sector, ranging from anti-competitive practices to intellectual property rights. Other key risks include labour relations, data privacy, product governance and resource use.
According to Sustainalytics, Meta’s overall management of material ESG issues is average.
Meta's structure limits the power of minority shareholders in company decisions. While the company’s privacy committee oversees its compliance with a significant 2019 settlement, Meta still faces ongoing lawsuits and fines for privacy issues, pointing to management gaps. Concerns also persist around fake news, user safety, and divisive content, with recent hearings suggesting that algorithm changes may have worsened these problems.
Meta key facts
All ratios are sourced from Refinitiv, based on previous day’s closing values. Please remember yields are variable and not a reliable indicator of future income. Keep in mind key figures shouldn’t be looked at on their own – it’s important to understand the big picture.
This article is original Hargreaves Lansdown content, published by Hargreaves Lansdown. It was correct as at the date of publication, and our views may have changed since then. Unless otherwise stated estimates, including prospective yields, are a consensus of analyst forecasts provided by Refinitiv. These estimates are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Yields are variable and not guaranteed. Investments rise and fall in value so investors could make a loss.
This article is not advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment. No view is given on the present or future value or price of any investment, and investors should form their own view on any proposed investment. This article has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is considered a marketing communication. Non-independent research is not subject to FCA rules prohibiting dealing ahead of research, however HL has put controls in place (including dealing restrictions, physical and information barriers) to manage potential conflicts of interest presented by such dealing. Please see our full non-independent research disclosure for more information.