Whitbread’s like-for-like sales fell 1% in the third quarter. 20% growth in its German operation was not enough to offset a 3% decline in the larger UK division. Room rates and occupancy were down across the UK, with London taking a bigger hit than the regions.
Trading has improved in the first six weeks of the final quarter, RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room, or the blended impact of price and occupancy) was in line with last year in the UK and up 28% in Germany.
Full-year guidance, which includes net investment expenditure of £325mn-£425mn remains unchanged. There is no company guidance in place for full-year revenue or profit, but markets are forecasting operating profits to fall by around 5% to £640mn.
Including the impact of the recent budget, UK cost inflation of 5-6% is expected next year, falling to 2-3% after mitigating measures have been taken.
The £100mn share buyback announced alongside the interim results has now been completed.
The shares were down 2.1% in mid-morning trading.
Our view
Whitbread’s third-quarter update revealed that trading at Premier Inn UK had softened further following a disappointing first-half performance. The market reaction suggests the blow was softened a little by a more stable start to the fourth quarter.
The UK's largest hotel chain continues to enjoy an enviable brand position in the value and mid-range hotel sector. That helped improve the profitability of its rooms and drive record levels of profits and cash flows last year, but it also makes comparatives more challenging moving forward.
A more pressing question is whether the cumulative increase in room rates will have more than a temporary effect on demand. Another risk to watch is the potential for reduced visits from overseas if geopolitical tensions worsen.
Signs are emerging that indicate increased pressure on the UK hospitality sector, particularly impacting standalone pubs and restaurants. Whitbread’s plans to reduce its involvement in this segment, shifting focus towards integrated restaurants within its hotels would seem a shrewd move. Over a quarter of the 12,000 or so room openings planned over the next 4 years are expected to come from restaurant conversions. With demand flagging Whitbread should pay close attention to the timing of its UK expansion.
Easing inflation at home is not doing the group any favours. It’s putting pressure on room rates. And when it comes to the Group’s own £1.7bn cost base, forthcoming increases in Employer’s National Insurance and the National Living Wage are driving a rise in expenses that will more than wipe out the benefit of previously announced cost savings next year.
If Whitbread can reproduce Premier Inn's success in Germany, this is potentially a bigger growth opportunity. But it’s yet to turn a profit. So it could be a while before Germany makes a meaningful contribution.
The balance sheet is also in reasonable shape. That's helped by the fact the group owns over half its hotels, rather than leasing them. What's more, its considerable re-investment plans of around £0.6bn for the current year should be fully funded by cash flows and disposals of non-core assets. This also helps feed into the group's ability to return cash to shareholders. But if demand remains sluggish management may need to revise its spending priorities
Whitbread is well placed to continue outperforming its competitors and we see long-term potential for both organic growth and further consolidation. The valuation sits below the long-term average and in our view, isn't overly demanding. However, the near-term challenges of cost pressures and a weaker demand environment remain very real.
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) risk
Consumer services companies are medium-risk in terms of ESG, and very few companies are excelling at managing them. That leaves plenty of opportunity for forward-thinking firms. The primary risk-driver is product governance. The impact of their products on society, labour relations and environmental concerns are also key risks to monitor.
Whitbread's management of material ESG issues is strong according to Sustainalytics.
Human capital management is considered above average with a strong development program in place. The company has appointed a management committee for overseeing ESG issues, but reporting is not in accordance with leading standards. As the owner of the UK's largest hotel chain, we would like to see an improvement in carbon intensity, and clearer targets on reducing its water usage. Further, management of product governance has been called out as average with no evidence that Whitbread's hotels and restaurants have received external quality certifications.
Whitbread key facts
All ratios are sourced from Refinitiv, based on previous day’s closing values. Please remember yields are variable and not a reliable indicator of future income. Keep in mind key figures shouldn’t be looked at on their own – it’s important to understand the big picture.
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