International Distribution Services Plc (IDS) Ordinary GBP0.01

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International Distribution Services (IDS) posted an 8.2% rise in revenue to £6.3bn, driven by growth across both Royal Mail and GLS. Underlying operating profit rose from a loss of £169mn to a £61mn profit.

Royal Mail saw revenue up 10.7%, driven by growth across both letters and parcels. Letters continue to see volume declines, offset by higher pricing. Losses from Royal Mail were reined in, with an underlying operating loss of £67mn from £319mn the prior year.

GLS saw revenue up 4.4%, with volume growth of 4%. Underlying operating profit fell from £150mn to £128mn, reflecting higher costs and investment.

Net debt increased to £1.9bn, from £1.5bn in September 2023, and there was a free cash outflow of £47mn.

Management called out challenging trading for GLS, and still expects Royal Mail to return to underlying operating profit in the current financial year. The sale of IDS is still expected next year, subject to approvals.

The shares fell 1.0% in early trading.

Our view

IDS, the owner of Royal Mail, is set to go private. After a series of negotiations, the £3.6bn offer (370p per share) has been put to shareholder vote and there’s expected to be further updates in the coming months.

The potential suitor clearly sees something in the underperforming Royal Mail business, where there have been early signs of improvement. However, growth over the first half was flattered by election-related letter volumes and easy comparable periods last year when strikes hurt volumes. The underlying business is still under some pressure.

Parcel volumes are down from the booming demand seen over the pandemic, and letters have long been in a structural decline. As the UK's universal postal service, Royal Mail is obligated to deliver letters six days a week. But maintaining an infrastructure built for 20bn letters when you're now only delivering 7bn isn't a recipe for an efficient operation. IDS wants to be allowed to right-size infrastructure to reflect the modern-day reality, and conversations are underway with the regulator. But any reforms are likely to be a long time coming.

Royal Mail is also set to feel a hefty impact from changes to employer National Insurance announced as part of the Budget. With around 130,000 employees, it’ll feel a disproportionate hit compared to competitors.

For now, winning back customers lost during strike actions over the past year or so is a major focus. Returning Royal Mail to profitability will rely on continued top-line growth. Until that happens profits for IDS at the group level are entirely propped up by the international business, GLS.

We're encouraged that GLS is still growing revenue, and we believe this division has some long-term growth opportunities, but growing margins is proving to be a challenge. That may become easier if inflation subsides further. Potential bolt-on acquisitions to GLS are also on the table.

IDS looks to be on better footing than it has been for some time, with Royal Mail on a pathway back to profitability and GLS performing well. But there’s no denying the challenges it faces in the UK, and in the near term the valuation will be driven by how the takeover progresses. Regulatory approval could be a tough hurdle, given how important Royal Mail is to the UK economy.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) risk

General Industrial companies are medium risk in terms of ESG but can trend up to the higher end of the spectrum depending on subindustry. The primary risks can include labour relations, emissions (either product or production-based), business ethics and product governance. Other concerns are waste and health & safety.

IDS’s overall management of material ESG issues is strong.

IDS has board level oversight for ESG issues and very strong reporting. Executive pay is linked to sustainability performance targets and the environmental policy is also very strong. There is a strong whistleblower programme and health & safety management is adequate, though employees lack regular training. The elephant in the room is last year’s strike action at Royal Mail. While agreements with the unions relating to pay and working conditions have been made, there remains an ongoing risk.

This article is original Hargreaves Lansdown content, published by Hargreaves Lansdown. It was correct as at the date of publication, and our views may have changed since then. Unless otherwise stated estimates, including prospective yields, are a consensus of analyst forecasts provided by Refinitiv. These estimates are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Yields are variable and not guaranteed. Investments rise and fall in value so investors could make a loss.

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