Taylor Wimpey plc (TW.) Ordinary 1p Shares

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Taylor Wimpey’s full-year average weekly net private sales rates in the UK rose 21% to 0.75, alongside falling cancellation rates.

The group completed 9,972 new homes in the UK in 2024, in line with guidance but down from 10,356 in the prior year. Average selling prices in the UK fell by 1.5% to £319,000 largely due to weakness in the South where affordability has been most stretched.

The order book grew 13% to £2.0bn. The net cash position fell from £0.7bn to £0.6bn, which was better than prior group guidance.

Full-year operating profit guidance of around £416mn has been reiterated.

Heading into 2025, Taylor Wimpey has seen an encouraging level of enquiries at the start of the year. The group expects to see build costs rise due to the recent UK budget, but believes it’s well positioned to “deliver volume growth” this year.

The shares fell 2.6% in early trading.

Our view

Taylor Wimpey’s 2024 trading update was broadly in line with expectations. Despite some weakness in selling prices in the South, the general mood music is positive, and there’s growing enthusiasm that activity will pick up across 2025.

With UK inflation looking largely under control, there’s cautious optimism that rates will creep lower this year. Falling rates are a tailwind for buyers, increasing their purchasing power. A potential homebuyer with a £1500 monthly mortgage budget has over 10% more borrowing capability at 4.0% than 5.0%.

2024’s operating profit looks set to land at around £416mn, marking a decline of around 10% year-over-year. But with the potential for a recovery in the housing market to gather steam, markets are now forecasting 2025 profits to rebound back above 2023 levels.

The landbank is a particular strength for Taylor Wimpey, which has a significant number of plots awaiting detailed planning permission. If the new government delivers on its promise to ease planning permission, more supply is likely to come online, and Taylor Wimpey should start to see the benefit.

The balance sheet is in great shape too, arguably one of the strongest in the sector. That provides plenty of cover for the generous prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. But remember, dividend policies can change on a dime. No dividends are guaranteed.

The current dividend policy is linked to asset value rather than earnings. That means investors are more likely to receive a base level of dividend even in a downturn. Given the improving outlook, we’d be keen to see this policy changed to favour a more even split between dividends and share buybacks. This would likely bring more value to shareholders given the group’s trading some way below book value.

Regardless, there are still challenges to navigate.

The sector's facing ongoing labour and supply chain challenges. That’s starting to move build cost inflation on an upward course again, which could put pressure on margins. There’s also the weakness of pricing in the South. With rates proving fairly sticky, buyers in this region are likely to remain hesitant to sign the dotted line on a new home.

There’s still plenty of uncertainty ahead, with margins likely to remain under pressure in the near term. But there are growing signs of improved buyer activity, and with a longer-term lens, the valuation remains attractive. Given its robust financial position and a strong pipeline of land, Taylor Wimpey is one of our preferred names in the sector.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) risk

Most housebuilders are relatively low risk in terms of ESG, particularly for those in Europe. However, there are some environmental risks to consider, from direct emissions to the impact of their buildings on the local ecology. The quality and safety of their buildings is also a key risk.

According to Sustainalytics, Taylor Wimpey’s management of ESG risk is strong.

The group has a strong greenhouse gas reduction programme in place and reports on scope 1, 2 & 3 emissions. There are clear deadlines in place and a renewable energy programme has also been implemented. While the group uses recycled materials, there’s no disclosure of the percentage used.

This article is original Hargreaves Lansdown content, published by Hargreaves Lansdown. It was correct as at the date of publication, and our views may have changed since then. Unless otherwise stated estimates, including prospective yields, are a consensus of analyst forecasts provided by Refinitiv. These estimates are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Yields are variable and not guaranteed. Investments rise and fall in value so investors could make a loss.

This article is not advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment. No view is given on the present or future value or price of any investment, and investors should form their own view on any proposed investment. This article has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is considered a marketing communication. Non-independent research is not subject to FCA rules prohibiting dealing ahead of research, however HL has put controls in place (including dealing restrictions, physical and information barriers) to manage potential conflicts of interest presented by such dealing. Please see our full non-independent research disclosure for more information.

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