United Utilities Group Plc (UU.) Ordinary 5p

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United Utilities has accepted the regulator’s price review, which will see customers’ bills rise by 32% in the five years to March 2030.

In total, the group plans to invest £13bn in its water network, increasing its regulatory asset base by 7% per annum over the same 5-year period. The group reiterated its dividend policy, planning to continue growing dividends in line with inflation.

United Utilities expects to carry all of this out this investment while maintaining debt levels within their target range.

Full-year guidance of around 10% growth in revenues and above inflation growth in underlying operating costs remains unchanged.

The shares were up 2.1% in afternoon trading.

Our View

United Utilities is on track to deliver double-digit revenue growth in the current financial year.

In return for providing a reliable and affordable water supply to Northwest England, Ofwat allows United Utilities to earn an acceptable financial return. Over the medium term, the group's allowed to increase prices alongside inflation, providing a natural hedge to rising costs. The caveat here is that the funds are only received two years later.

We’re seeing the positive impact of these high inflation-linked increases on the group's revenue now, which is more than offsetting higher costs and helping profits grow at a faster pace. That’s a tailwind that looks set to continue in the near term and beyond with 32% increases in pricing mandated by 2030 to help cover investment commitments.

Outcome Delivery Incentives (ODIs) climbed to a record £34mn last year – the highest amount in the sector. ODIs are bonuses received for delivering above and beyond committed levels of service to customers. That figure is set to be exceeded this year.

The balance sheet remains stable, with debt levels in the middle of the group’s target range. This helps support the group's ambitious £13bn plans to expand and upgrade its assets between 2025-2030. However, United Utilities still needs to raise a large chunk of cash, which will require issuing new debt and likely push debt levels towards the top end of its target range.

With more price rises ahead, affordability pressures impacting customers' ability to pay their bills is also something to be wary of. The company’s set aside £525mn of support with additional government funding in place. But United Utilities is calling for this to be more fairly distributed, with some of the country's most deprived communities being within the areas it services.

All in, the group runs a tight ship, with some of the best margins relative to peers. Its regular cash flows and inflation-linked revenue are enviable assets to have in an uncertain environment. But the group's not immune to missteps. Adverse weather and sewage leaks could continue to present challenges, and increase the risk of reputational damage.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) risk

The utilities industry is high-risk in terms of ESG. Management of these risks tends to be strong, with European firms outperforming their overseas counterparts. Environmental risks like carbon emissions, resource use and non-carbon emissions and spills tend to be the most significant risks for this industry. Employee health and safety and community relations are also key risks to monitor.

According to Sustainalytics, United Utilities’ management of ESG risk is strong.

In 2023, it was a lead performer in preventing pollution incidents, with the lowest number of incidents relative to peers per 10,000km of sewers. However, United Utilities’ ageing infrastructure means it’s exposed to climate impacts such as heavy rainfall and flooding. It has also been implicated in occasional drinking water contamination issues and some releases of untreated sewage, resulting in an ongoing investigation by regulators.

This article is original Hargreaves Lansdown content, published by Hargreaves Lansdown. It was correct as at the date of publication, and our views may have changed since then. Unless otherwise stated estimates, including prospective yields, are a consensus of analyst forecasts provided by Refinitiv. These estimates are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Yields are variable and not guaranteed. Investments rise and fall in value so investors could make a loss.

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