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(Sharecast News) - TPXimpact said in an update on Thursday that trading in the third quarter of its 2025 financial year met management expectations, with profitability and margins in line with forecasts, although it revised its full-year outlook downwards amid macroeconomic challenges.
The AIM-traded company said it secured about 30m in new business during the quarter, bringing the total for the first nine months of the year to 65m.
Despite a solid third quarter, the firm had revised its full-year outlook due to ongoing macroeconomic challenges and delays in government procurement.
Budgetary constraints following the post-election review had slowed the award and execution of large digital transformation programmes, the board said, particularly within central government.
The UK government's comprehensive spending review, which would determine departmental budgets for the parliamentary term, had been postponed from March to June this year, further delaying decisions on digital projects.
As a result, TPXimpact said it no longer expected its digital transformation business to see the anticipated acceleration in volume during the final quarter of the current financial year.
Full-year revenue for 2025 was now projected to decline by 8% to 10% compared to the prior year.
However, due to cost-cutting and restructuring efforts implemented earlier in the year, adjusted EBITDA margins were expected to improve by between one and two percentage points, leading to an overall increase in adjusted EBITDA.
Net debt at year-end was forecast to be between 1.5x and 2.0x adjusted EBITDA, remaining well within banking covenant limits.
Looking ahead to 2026, TPXimpact said it anticipated a return to normal market conditions in the second quarter following completion of the government's spending review.
The company said it expected revenue growth at the lower end of its previous 10% to 15% guidance for the year, alongside a continued improvement in adjusted EBITDA margins of one to three percentage points, though higher National Insurance costs could limit gains.
Despite short-term challenges, TPXimpact said it was confident in its strategic direction, with its three-year plan to simplify operations, enhance margin conversion, and position for future growth remaining on track.
The company said it expected continued opportunities in government digital transformation as public sector demand recovered.
"Whilst short-term market conditions remain challenging for our digital transformation business, we have a strong pipeline of opportunities and remain confident in the government's commitment to improve public services and drive efficiencies through digital transformation and harnessing the potential of AI," said chief executive officer Bjorn Conway.
"The digital transformation business, and the group overall, remains well positioned for growth as the government's spending plans begin to take shape.
"We continue to see exceptional performance from our teams in delivering value and impact for our clients and our long-term relationships and commitment to these clients leaves us well placed to continue to support their success and provide opportunities for our people to grow and develop."
Conway said TPXimpact was a "much simpler and more coherent" business than it was two years ago, with "strong" trading brands, long-term customer relationships, and "in-demand capabilities" that he described as a strong foundation for future growth.
"We are in the process of planning and budgeting for next year, ensuring our strategic goals continue to align with the government's growth priorities and I look forward to sharing updates on our continuing progress in the months ahead."
At 1208 GMT, shares in TPXimpact Holdings were down 12.53% at 27.99p.
Reporting by Josh White for Sharecast.com.