Berenberg names Rio Tinto as top mining pick for 2025

(Sharecast News) - Berenberg has named Rio Tinto as its top pick for 2025 among London's blue-chip diversified mining stocks ahead of what's set to be a volatile start to the year for the sector.

Ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration on 20 January, Berenberg predicts increased volatility in commodity markets with proposed trade tariffs on US imports from China "likely to keep a lid on commodity price upside, particularly for traditional global GDP bellwether commodities such as copper".

However, the broker added: "We take the view that the Chinese government can deploy more aggressive stimulus measures to support industrial output and its broader economy if the perceived tariff impact could have additional impacts on its economy."

As for specific commodity prices, analysts have taken a "cautious view" on copper prices due to a stronger US dollar and global trade risks, but remains more construction for aluminium and zinc. Iron ore prices are expected to remain broadly stable, while gold prices will remain supported by central bank demand, geopolitical volatility and inflation risk, they said.

Platinum was highlighted as a key winner for the year, with prices set to rally on "increasing supply tightness, while autocatalyst demand receives support from growing hybrid vehicle sales", which should also benefit uranium too, the broker added.

Rio Tinto, rated 'buy', has a more stable investment thesis and more attractive returns profile than BHP ('hold'), Berenberg said, while the current share price of Anglo American ('sell') is pricing in a renewed takeover big from BHP which the broker thinks "will not materialise".

Among smaller caps, the broker's other stock picks for they year include Ecora Resources, Sovereign Metals, Rainbow Rare Earths, Endeavour Mining and Wheaton Precious Metals.